Solar

Solar energy is used in two different forms as a source of primary energy, viz: (i) solar photovoltaic and rechargeable battery and inverter system; and (ii) concentrated solar and turbo-generator system. In these formats, Solar Energy does not meet baseload requirements as per the above-mentioned definition. During the period when the sun’s radiative intensity is lower than required, concentrated solar is unable to heat the working fluid to desired temperature levels or when the sun emits higher than required radiative intensity and photovoltaic cells lose their overall efficiency.

The intensive study on solar rays’ physical behaviour has yielded Improvements on these solar-oriented system.  Recent designs and application of heat storage systems have allowed for the storage of useful heat over an extended period of time and photovoltaic cells are now being designed and built to withstand beyond design-base heat intensity.  Photovoltaic is inefficient and require large space (agriculturally productive tracks of land could be lost to this technology) for small energy output, also then photovoltaic’s operational life is notoriously short. Soon solar will be engineered to meet the baseload requirements as defined above.

Hydroelectricity

A dam built across a river and a pumped-storage reservoirs with associated penstocks and turbo-generator arrangement can generate hydroelectricity.  In both cases, the amount of hydro-electric power generated is inversely proportional to the hydraulic head of the source. South African hydroelectric systems suffer low EAF as the seasons change from rainy to dry. The pumped storage system has an added disadvantage as its availability is already compromised due to necessary pauses between generating and pumping water back into reservoirs. Hydroelectric generation is therefore not a suitable baseload system (as per this article’s definition) for South Africa due to the fact that the South African river systems in unsteady and unreliable.

Grid stability issues

Even if PV solar, wind and battery energy technologies succeed at providing most of the energy required and they significantly surpass electrical energy generated by synchronous generating machines, a new problem would ensue. These inverters are not capable of keeping the grid stable, safe and efficient. The grid stability is defined as the grid’s ability to remain at the specific frequency and voltage levels.

The inverters in renewable energy generators mentioned above do not have capabilities to prevent the inertia shortfall, unless if further investment is made into equipment such as the synchronous condensers. The synchronous condensers emulate the synchronous turbo-generators in keeping the grid stable, safe and efficient.

Conclusion and necessary forward

A diverse baseload energy generating portfolio that includes renewables and aims to reduce adverse environmental impacts and associated externalities is essential for driving the country’s economy. As has been indicated herein, nuclear energy is an obvious choice for such a baseload portfolio. The other energy sources that must be explored and evaluated for the South African baseload is a geothermal energy source.

Despite the enormous advantages over traditional workshop floor machining for maintenance and repairs, little is known about OSM in Africa and most developing countries, although this field of machining has been around for decades. Early inventions can be seen on patents, such as the portable milling machine dating back to 1970 by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 

Convenience

The patent related to milling tube or pipe ends to a shape that the machine operator desires. The invention introduced the portable milling machine for tube ends that were out of round shape instead of the typical approach of using tracks secured to the outside diameter of the pipe. In such a case, the portable milling machine brings the convenience of machining non-standard-shaped components within the dedicated plant location. 

The requirements for machining on-site vary across industries, such as power generation, oil and gas, petrochemical plants, mining, earthmoving and construction, manufacturing, ship building and repair, forestry, pulp and paper, and water utilities. The requirements for machining on-site are largely due to components that rotate, requiring maintenance and repairs due to wear and tear. The scope is limited to the challenges of rotating parts and overall components that require surface restoration or, in some cases, bolts or studs that have seized on removal. Possible multiple applications have not yet been explored, and as such, advancements in the design of portable machine tools have seen improvements but with room for more work to be done in the advancement of the field. 

Upgrades

The initial machine designs in on-site machining, which are still largely in use, are based on the upgrade of conventional machines such as centre lathe, milling machine, drilling machine, surface grinder, horizontal boring mill etc, located within most machine shops. Thus a conventional centre lathe utilized within a machine shop would have a portable version but one that would be mounted on a shaft in situ for machining. Most portable machine tools in current use are based on this principle.  

The application of OSM has numerous advantages for clients, especially during outages or shutdowns. Where components need to be stripped down for maintenance and repair purposes, the transportation of components to remote workshops is often required for machining applications depending on the condition of the component. In other instances, components cannot be removed from the site, which presents a  challenge where machining is required. The transportation of components has its disadvantages as most of the components are often large and require abnormal transportation. In addition, the energy utilized to transport such large components adds carbon emissions to the environment, compounding the disadvantages of machining off site. 

In position

Portable machine tools are usually transported by vehicle, such as a single or double cab vehicle. The machines are normally electric, hydraulic, or pneumatically powered, and they would be connected within most power plants or areas where the components are located. The component is machined in position eliminating the need for a complete strip down, where applicable. A complete strip-down of the component lends itself to scope creep, as some parts require additional work. 

Downtime through OSM is reduced to a minimum as some machining can be carried out during a shift with minimum interruption to the plant operation. The result to the client is a saving in time and money as opposed to the costs associated with a complete strip-down for maintenance, repairs and work carried out off-site. In addition, the client witnessing the work being carried out in situ removes the possibility of unknowns resulting from work conducted off-site.

Overseas investment in projects which emit CO2 emissions has ceased, and Europe, our biggest export market, appears likely to implement a carbon import tax on products associated with CO2 emissions. The following article will discuss our required transition to a low carbon economy. South Africa needs to focus on poverty alleviation and job creation within the context of positioning itself in this new low carbon world economy.

At the heart of this transition is replacing the burning of fossil fuels with a new energy source. Progress in the 20th century was made possible by burning coal, oil, and gas to power mechanized machines for farming, mining, construction and mobilize goods and people. In 2020, 5 out of the 10 largest companies in the world by revenue were oil and gas industries, which demonstrates that energy is a key economic driver to our global economy.

Through a combination of using a cleaner energy mix of wind turbines, solar power plants, and gas-fired rather than coal-fired power stations, and greater efficiencies in using this energy in industry, businesses, and homes, both the UK and Germany have led the way in reducing emissions by around 50% compared with their 1990 levels: with continued improvements still possible. Further positive developments have been the emergence of electric passenger vehicles as a viable alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles. Battery electric vehicles made up 54% of all new cars sold in Norway in 2020, and a modest 6% but growing in China. Challenges however remain. The cost of energy storage is currently limiting a full penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources to provide high quality uninterrupted power.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen fuel (or using hydrogen as an energy carrier) has been proposed as a solution to store surplus renewable energy by electrolyzing water to be used again when the sun stops shining, or the wind stops blowing. Hydrogen has an energy density 2.6 times that of diesel which is extremely positive, but the economic feasibility of a hydrogen powered industry including hydrogen production and distribution needs to be questioned and compared with state-of-the-art alternatives. 

The argument that the future glut of cheap renewable energy will power a green hydrogen economy does not hold water. Currently 98% of hydrogen is produced from natural gas using the steam-methane reforming (SMR) process. This cheaper hydrogen production process, as compared to electrolysis, commonly releases CO2 into the atmosphere. The production of electricity directly from methane is cheaper than the production of electricity from hydrogen produced with SMR. 

The production, distribution, and utilization of hydrogen requires water purification, compression or liquification, distribution and conversion back to electricity through a fuel cell. In each of these processes, energy is lost to the point that only 35% of the original energy is useful.  This is 3 times less compared with the energy stored in a battery. Using a realistic energy grid, which is not 100% decarbonized, each unit of electricity derived from a hydrogen fuel cell is responsible for 3 times the CO2 emissions derived from a Li-ion battery.

No meaningful penetration

The freight haulage business is extremely price sensitive, which is why hydrogen fuel cell technology has made no meaningful penetration into the commercial vehicle market for which it is hyped as the solution to the weight of a battery. The flagship hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is the Toyota Mirai, which is a passenger vehicle. Toyota has contributed immensely to the world economy in furthering lean engineering and waste reduction, but the waste of energy in driving a Toyota Mirai compared with a battery electric vehicle is at loggerheads with Toyota guru, Taiichi Ohno’s waste reduction principles. 

The VW group, comprising MAN and Scania, which accounts for 1/3 of commercial vehicles sales in South Africa, has ceased further investment in hydrogen technologies in spite it being currently the only heavy-duty vehicle manufacturer with hydrogen vehicles in operations with customers. Scania’s Head of Sales and Marketing, Alexander Vlaskamp, “To do what’s best for both our customers total operating economy and our planet, we are not closing the door on any possibilities. It is clear that Scania’s focus in the here-and-now perspective as well as short- term is a combination of renewable fuels and battery electric vehicles. We see that for basically all segments.”

Nuclear energy is also no silver bullet. A nuclear power plant takes 10 years to build, which is how long we have taken to build coal power stations Medupi and Kusile.  Realistically South Africa cannot afford the capital investment for a nuclear power plant. Furthermore, it is a challenge to vary the power output of nuclear power stations to track the energy demand variations and dips of energy output from solar and wind. South Africa should continue with plans to extend the life of the 2 GW Koeberg but not plan for new nuclear plants which we cannot afford.

Energy needs

South Africa’s current electricity mix of 4% from solar and wind provides ample room for expansion with the most potential for overseas and local investment to decarbonize our electricity supply. Other good news is that South Africa has expanded the Lesotho highlands hydropower stations from Phase I to Phase II (currently at ~72 MW with an added ~110 MW almost complete) and pump storage schemes (currently at ~1000 MW with ~1000 MW almost complete). South Africa’s hydropower is only a fraction of our energy needs but orders of magnitude greater than the world’s largest hydrogen electrolysis plant planned for Leuna, Germany to start production of green hydrogen in 2022 (24 MW). 

We also have extensive local expertise and knowledge in the successful implementation of the 2 GW, 1 400 km, transmission line from the Cahora Bassa hydroelectric plant. Eskom should focus on maintaining an efficient electrical energy distribution system, which is an important piece of the decarbonization puzzle. It is likely that the best solution to the renewable energy transition in South Africa will be a combination of low cost solar, wind and hydroelectric schemes with local battery storage and efficient electricity transmission and schemes to balance power demand and supply like using privately owned electric vehicles to power the grid during periods of peak demand. 

Before expensive decarbonization infrastructure is planned, the use of energy in the most efficient manner possible in industry, businesses, and homes needs to be pursued. These efficiency interventions alone will not get us to zero carbon emissions, but they importantly do reduce emissions, they pay for themselves, and they make the final infrastructure spend on low carbon energy production and storage less demanding. Plant managers should ensure controllers are at the correct set-points with continuous improvement plans in place to reduce energy costs. 

More than golf carts

Although South Africa’s office heating demands are modest in comparison to the Northern hemisphere, heating systems should use electricity and heat pumps. Innovative legislation to unlock high-capacity transport i.e., the Performance-Based Standards initiative which has demonstrated a reduction in CO2 emissions by 19%, should be supported by government. Government needs to further campaign and advocate for the slice of the electric vehicle manufacturing market. The automotive manufacturing sector in South Africa accounts for 6% of our current economy. We currently stand to lose an important export revenue stream if we continue to manufacture internal combustion vehicles. 

Removal of the 25% import tax on electric car imports (which were intended for golfcarts), would send the correct message to the likes of VW, Tesla and BYD to consider manufacturing electric vehicle plants in South Africa. Upgrades and electrification of our train system (sadly dogged in recent years by tender corruption scandals) is needed to make rail transport more attractive. Using predicted GDP growth and freight models, South Africa’s transport demand will require several additional lanes to the Durban-Gauteng and other major freight corridors in the next 20–25 years. Rail needs to play its appropriate role in the national freight transport system by reducing pressure on road infrastructure along long-distance, large volume corridors. This would further our national decarbonization efforts.

Way forward

South Africa will need to contribute to a decarbonized world economy and towards this end focus on using energy more efficiently. Energy efficiency is our only hope to dig ourselves out of the hole of being bankrupt but still make deep, meaningful cuts in CO2 emissions; the efficiency improvement interventions paying for themselves. In this respect, using hydrogen as an energy carrier and the hydrogen economy is a nonstarter. 

The Koeberg nuclear plant should be maintained but any new nuclear build is unaffordable. Eskom and the government need to focus on a fair and conducive regulatory framework to allow solar and wind plants to be financed and built and focus on maintaining an efficient distribution system to transmit electricity. We advise the SA government and industry to be guided by the most recent developments. The current and most affordable power systems are based on solar, wind, battery energy storage and hydro where possible.

This article was submitted by Frank Kienhofer and has been collaboratively written by the Centre for Sustainable Road Freight - South Africa (SRF-SA), a collaboration which currently includes Stellenbosch University, University of the Witwatersrand (Wits), the CSIR, the University of the Western Cape (UWC), Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) and local industry partner Michelin South Africa. The SRF-SA has partnered with the SRF-UK (which includes Cambridge and Heriot-Watt Universities) and universities in China (Tong-ji, Jilin, and Zhejiang Universities) and India (IIT Madras and IIM Ahmedabad).

According to ECSA, South Africa lags globally in terms of engineers per population. It is estimated that our country has one engineer for every 1 600 people whereas internationally one engineer serves 40 people. Due to current economic circumstances, operators of critical infrastructure have been placed under severe strain to such an extent that they are currently losing valuable expertise, skills, and experience through organisational restructuring measures. 

This is hardly good news for an industry where graduates are at home while we are supposed to fill the pipeline with future leaders and figures of technical authority. In addition, we are frustrated by the common belief that South African problems cannot be solved by South African engineers. 

We under-sell ourselves. Engineers already have the wireframe of formal and voluntary associations to enable the same level of professional organisation as in the medical and financial sectors, yet we allow ourselves to take a back seat. Our profession needs engineers, companies and associations to join hands to realise a shared vision. A vision where knowledge sharing, collaboration and recognition will result in the development of engineers from graduates to masters in their craft. 

It is an investment that may only return dividends over the long run, but will ultimately ensure the long term sustainability of both entities alike. 

For example, in my company which has as established Mechanical Engineering department, brilliant people are valued by their peers, trusted by clients, and respected by the competition. But even this situation has an ever-encroaching expiry date. One that can only be extended through youth, community, and investment in competence. 

In our company, we often say that the most experienced people do not have a monopoly on good ideas. SAIMechE provides a platform where engineers with varying experience levels contribute to support the voice of our profession and share good ideas, regardless of industry or company affiliation. 

SAIMechE promotes the involvement of students in technical and networking events, which in turn provides the opportunity for companies to spot and acquire talented people. In addition, SAIMechE’s company affiliate programme is instrumental in providing companies with the platform, audience, and support to give back to the mechanical engineering fraternity. 

Collaboration between companies and voluntary associations is imperative, as together they support each other through conferences, seminars, exhibitions and many other endeavours. 

It’s an exciting time to be an engineer in South Africa. We refuse to allow external crises to determine our fate. We are not simply obliged to invest in the youth, our very survival depends on it.

The participants were researchers investigating engineering education in local, national and global contexts; educators who teach engineering students everything from fundamental mathematics to the professional communications skills they’ll require to become professional engineers; technicians and technologists; academic support staff who work hard to help students and lecturers in crafting effective, efficient, innovative and equitable learning opportunities.  

We even had engineering students alongside lecturers participating in a workshop where researchers juxtaposed approaches to decolonisation relevant to engineering in San Diego, CA, USA with those in Cape Town, RSA. Over the few days we met, I was struck by the similarity in challenges facing engineering education across the globe.  

The fundamentals of engineering science have not changed significantly over the past 20 years, however, the number of students in our classes has grown dramatically.
Our students’ educational, socio-economic and cultural identities are far more diverse, and the challenges that they face are those related to the rapidly changing context of our global society, and
the uncertainty and unpredictability of the future of humanity, exacerbated by Covid-19.  

At the same time, there has been innovation to teaching and learning in engineering education over the past couple of decades. We use the internet, smart phones, teamwork projects, project-based learning – basically any innovative idea that we can access in order to reach the many students in our classes.  Furthermore, we no longer teach classes of 50 students, but up to 500.

Modern academic
The number of students in our classrooms who are first-generation university goers has increased dramatically; there are more than five girls in our graduating classes; we know that some students learn well through pictures, others through discussions and groupwork, others through reading. The days of a lecturer standing in front of a class for 50 minutes, three times a week, and speaking to the class non-stop, are gone.  Many universities across the world now require the modern academic to submit a teaching portfolio showcasing their reflection on and practice in teaching and learning, as well as their disciplinary research excellence in order to move up the academic ladder. Within this productivity driven environment, it is understandable that lecturers are gathering to share practices and ideas that relate to both engineering and learning.

In South Africa, SASEE (founded in 2011) has been instrumental in building this community of practice
and creating opportunities for engineering education stakeholders to work together to navigate the
complex world of building knowledge, transferring skills, and preparing young engineers for industry.

Collaboration
The REES 2019 conference provided an exceptional opportunity for our South African community to collaborate and share their experiences with colleagues from Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, South America and the rest of Africa. What was encouraging to observe was the quality of engineering education in South Africa, the dedication of the educators and researchers who are truly invested in growing engineers for our country, and to recognise that the issues we struggle with resonate with those experienced by our colleagues across the globe. 

What we missed at the conference was the voice of the industrial and commercial engineering community, a critical stakeholder in the engineering
education project. Each of our SAIMechE members studied engineering somewhere. We are living in
the same dynamic and challenging world for which engineering educators are trying to prepare our
student engineers. SASEE would like to invite and encourage our mechanical engineering community to get involved in shaping the engineers of our future.  

Despite all the complaints that we make about our educational systems and the difficulties we face with our economy, we have so many vibrant, intelligent and dedicated young people who want to become engineers, who want to grow our country and our engineering community. It is our duty to work together to create a fertile academic environment in which they can grow and succeed.

We remain steadfast in the view that "By Knowledge We Advance".  That brings us to the significance of the engineering opinion, particularly, related to the Mechanical Engineering discipline.

To understand the importance of our opinion, perhaps a good place to start will be where that opinion is going to be applied and ultimately its impact on the economy.  Think infrastructure for aviation, rail, road, marine and their corresponding systems including their different modes of transport; infrastructure for utilities; medical equipment, mining infrastructure and other such significant assets.

Where Does one go for an opinion on the above?  It should be undisputed that the home of such opinion is, predominantly, SAIMechE.

Home of the Mechanical Engineering Opinion

Lest we forget that the screw pump at a wastewater treatment plant, massive as it is, is useless without an electric motor.

On the other hand, both these pieces of equipment are controlled by a Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) which is electronic.  Need I say more!  Well, of course we will still defend the Mechanical Engineering opinion with appreciation of the equally significant roles played by other disciplines.

But I said "home" of the Mechanical Engineering opinion.  I want to made an assumption that each time one refers to a place as home, a sense of belonging, of pride, of security and of freedom, among others, quickly takes over.  Now, open the door of that home, walk in and only find one member sitting there.  Surely you will have doubts in as far as one person's opinion versus the scope of what is expected from a regular home.

One the other hand, the consolidation of many authors'  views is that engineering is the application of science and mathematics to solve humanity's problems.  Given the wide variety of problems in this regard, it makes sense that the logical and structured approach might not be adequate to assist in finding such solutions.

The home owner

Of course the home owner's role cannot get easier that keeping family members happy and engaged to maximize and sustain their sense of belonging.  But simply saying "keeping members happy" does not provide much.  The organisation will have to, together with its community, unpack that to the satisfaction of all members.

Many sources I have consulted on organisational membership suggest that the organisation must ensure provision of continuous value for its members.  While that might be correct to some extent, I'll still go ahead and rephrase that to suggest that the organisation must ensure provision of platforms for creation of continuous value, because what organisation can ever have a conclusive position on that constitutes value proposition for its members without their involvement?

Notwithstanding the fact that members' involvement provides ore clarity on what they see as value for their membership, it is also expected that their involvement will give them a sense of owning that part of the organisation to which they have contributed.

I suppose it's a safe assumption, again, to suggest that members who are having a sense of belonging will stay and , further, automatically continue to engage meaningfully for knowledge creation and sharing.  And, what better place for the Mechanical Engineering stakeholders that in SAIMechE.

Fortunately, SAIMechE already has many platforms to enable easy value exchange for its members.  To count but a few, the website and its many features; and also a number of contact sessions.  Although those platforms are very important, they should not be confused with real value for membership, which I will attempt to get to, soon.

The role-players

Why do we want to congregate?  Is it because we want to achieve shared goals/outputs?  I'd say yes... The importance of achieving results together cannot be underestimated.  Out of that comes member confidence and a sense of fulfillment for those who played a role.  Arguably, people who achieve together are likely to stick around together.

The question, however, remains whether the SAIMechE membership numbers are adequate enough to provide for a representative opinion.  According to our records, females in articular make up a heartbreaking 8.9% of the total number of SAIMechE members.  Accounting to the Engineering Council of South Africa (ECSA), South Africa has one engineer per 2 600 people compared with international norms, where one engineer serves 40 people.

Considering that we've already seen here that the engineering scope can never be perfectly designed to allow for the engineer to follow a logical and structured approach given the wider scope of the problems to be solved, the more innovative and progressive opinions from the members the better!

The organisation provides for a wide variety of categories to enable a wide range of role-players:  Company Affiliates, Associates, Honorary Fellow, Fellow, Graduates, Students and open category members where all qualifying stakeholders of this profession are invited to come and contribute meaningfully.

And on a biased note, given the slow uptake by females in this profession, I particularly urge all eligible female persons to rise up and make a difference in this profession.  Their colourfulness is sorely missed!

The value proposition

Is it incentives, rewards, and the likes that will make you proud each time the name SAIMEchE is mentioned; or is it SAIMEchE's credible engineering opinion that cannot be ignored by society that will make you proud to belong?  I choose a credible engineering opinion.

Whichever one you choose, please still come and advance the organisation with us!  With more members' involvement, we can be certain of a more accurately defined value proposition, and therefore a better output for SAIMechE.

First principles

However, a working engineer must be able to identify the level of engineering required to solve a problem to within an acceptable degree of accuracy.  It may be a priority to quickly solve a solution by using proven design and empirical formula, but for more complex problems the use of first principles and Matlab type calculations must be reverted to. Although simplicity is often the most revered solution in industry, it is often the most difficult outcome to attain.  The newly graduated engineer must then extend themselves beyond the technical learning received in university and consider the more complicated variables of manufacturability, politics, material cost, trade-offs and HAZOPs.  The intuition of what equipment must be procured from overseas, or what must be produced locally cannot be taught in university. University also cannot teach the challenges involved with getting a construction crew’s equipment through the Zimbabwean border, nor can it teach the intricacies of identifying and managing potential risks in the execution of a project. Scenarios such as these can only be learned through experience.

The Real World

It must be further considered that the product being designed will unlikely be used in the ideal world on which university models are based. In the real world, pipelines may become fouled with time, upsetting an engineer’s delicate pipeline pressure loss calculations.  Instabilities in a process may be brought about by off specification material being fed into the factory. A good engineer must have the foresight to identify these potential “less than ideal” operating conditions and factor these into their calculations. To all the newly graduated engineers and those who are still studying, do not be discouraged. The world of mechanical engineering, especially within sub-Saharan Africa is an exciting adventure that presents many unique opportunities, that may not be known to those who are considering moving their careers abroad. My newly emerging career at a consulting engineering firm has seen helicopter rides to project sites in near uncharted regions of Africa, the comradery of a project team rallying against long odds to successfully meet a client’s requirements, and the dynamics of dealing with international projects.  I have been exposed to projects ranging from ethanol plants to transformer oil production facilities to food processing factories. The notion that opportunities do not exist in this country for young engineers is only true if you believe it. My advice to those entering the work place is to be open to every  opportunity that will be presented to you, any opportunity no matter how small or trivial will always have the potential to unlock further opportunities further down the line.

As an engineering professional working in a design environment, awareness of engineering possibilities in supply chain was unknown.  Many companies still don’t realize the real consequences of strategic decisions taken (or not taken) in supply chain, including its effects on operations and vice versa.  The importance of having strong engineering individuals working in supply chain to make strategic technical decisions suddenly became clear as this would form the basis to ultimately reduce total cost of ownership (TCO) and improve plant availability without operations realizing potential changes to past “modus-operandi”.  Time spent in a supply chain environment highlighted important responsibilities of engineers which includes: obtaining a holistic view of e.g. mechanical goods and services within the local (and if applicable international) markets to ensure best standards and practices for procurement, establishing a common strategic direction for dealing with key suppliers and stakeholders, optimizing and standardizing procurement opportunities, management and optimization of internal approved vendors/manufacturers to ensure procurement that meets the relevant health & safety standards as well as local and/or international engineering standards and specifications.  To manage this effectively, a diligent engineering thought process is required to understand the technical requirements of internal business processes.  Further support in the form of broad knowledge and background of various, different engineering standards and specifications supports regular audits on suppliers to verify compliance.  One often hears of procurement challenges such as the recent train locomotives that was procured to the wrong specifications.  One can’t then help to wonder if there were any engineering involvement in the supply chain and possible technical standardization process. 

From a maintenance point of view standardizing on specific brands of equipment (e.g. pumps, valves, filters etc.) is in most cases a good approach.  This in turn brings benefits such as minimum / critical spares coordination, stock holding benefits and strategies that supports plant availability.  On the other hand, standardization can reduce competitiveness in the market and needs to be managed carefully, as this could make the plant vulnerable by being too reliant on one or two suppliers.  A critical challenge engineers in strategic sourcing face is to find that balance between ensuring security of supply, understanding stakeholder requirements and expectations, effectively managing total cost of ownership and technical and legal compliance through correct supply chain practices and procedures.

Although the role of a engineers in supply chain might be considered as “less technical” in the mechanical engineering environment it certainly is a critical and much needed role with responsibilities and deliverables that can achieve huge cost savings benefits for any company through transparent and diligent sourcing strategies. 

Niekie Swanepoel
MSAIMechE Pr Tech Eng

At the November 2018 Council meeting we heard about the activities of the various SAIMechE Student Chapters, and the Council was very impressed.  In the three-month reporting period, the Student Chapters  arranged and hosted sixteen events involving seven tertiary education institutions and eight companies.  The activities included speed-mentoring, site visits, technical talks, conferences and recruitment drives.  There was some social interaction as well, and one chapter arranged and hosted a sold-out dinner dance at an up-market venue, which included sponsorship from a major bank which they secured themselves.

Shortly after the Council meeting I attended an industry advisory committee meeting at a tertiary institution, and rather than having to find my own way around the typically complex campus, I was pleasantly surprised to be greeted just inside the main gate by a group of SAIMechE Student Chapter committee members.  I could hardly miss them in their matching branded golf shirts, each holding a clear sign for those attending the meeting.  They guided me to a special parking space and then to the venue.  I felt like the most important person on the campus!  What a fantastic advertisement for SAIMechE from those who have only recently become members.  They were so proud to be identified with SAIMechE and to play a role in hosting guests on their campus.  They are also so keen to play a productive role in the profession, and are looking to their SAIMechE membership to help them achieve their goals.

My overall impression of the Student Chapters is that, in the main, they have been getting on with the job by themselves.  They have helped each other to form and manage the chapters.  They have drafted their own guidelines and procedures to be more effective in arranging their activities.  They have been careful with their expenditure and have managed their budgets effectively.  The Student Chapter AGMs and meetings that I have been to have been professionally run and focused on the interests of the member.  Meeting protocol is generally well understood and meeting minutes are concise and well prepared.  I don’t think that anyone is teaching the Student Chapters about the finer points of professional conduct - they are figuring it out by themselves, and learning important life lessons in the process.

In all cases of student activity there have been individuals who have responded to the call for service to others.  A handful of students arrange all the activities and put in the hours necessary to get the job done.  This is not unusual and we see this in all sorts of organisations relying on the voluntary service of members.   The individuals that serve will naturally stand out from the crowd because of their commitment, dedication and effort.  They may not realise it, but they are being recognised, and effort they put in now will produce some greater benefit in the future.  

I am very grateful to our Students Chapters for reminding me of one of the cornerstones of voluntary professional associations like SAIMechE.  That professional and personal growth comes through service to others, and that offers many opportunities and platforms from which to serve.  Serving means meeting other people, interacting with them and doing things collectively to serve the greater good. Serving means not feeling alone, but feeling part of a group.  Thank you for reminding me of all the good reasons for being a member of SAIMechE.

Vaughan Rimbault
SAIMechE CEO

Looking back on my professional career, I can now clearly see that it took a turn for the better from about the time I was first drafted onto the KZN Branch committee in the early 1990’s.  At that time, I wasn’t thinking of my professional development, but probably didn’t have a good enough reason to dodge the invitation.  I admit to often giving of my time grudgingly in those early years, and considered my service on the committee as part of an obligation to give something back to the profession, with no expectation of a benefit in return.  Now I recognise the significance of that point in my career, and am able to identify the many benefits that followed.

From the first committee meeting my mechanical engineering world started to expand.  I immediately met a handful of professionals and started hearing more about the world of mechanical engineering.  Up to that point, my only engineering contact was at work, which presented me with a very narrow and uninviting view of the profession.  I had very few professional colleagues at work, and spent most of my time engaging with the engineering trades on the one side, and management on the other.  By attending committee meetings and assisting with the organisation of activities, I started hearing of new industries, technologies and machines.  I heard the names of people in industry and started to connect the dots in the profession.  For the first time in my career I interacted with people who were focused on mechanical engineering, and it felt like home.

In the early years I didn't fully realise the value of a network of professional colleagues that I was creating.  Looking back, I would consider my professional network to be the most significant contributor to my development.  This network has consistently presented me with knowledge, experience, advice and support, and I could not imagine a more appropriate space in which to encounter these.

I have been the KZN Branch Treasurer for more years than I can remember, and this office has helped me to become a very competent bookkeeper and Pastel operator.  Branch accounts are quite small and manageable, and give great opportunity for learning. I now properly understand accounting and financial statements and can hold my own against any commerce professional.  Solid financial skills are quite lacking in the engineering profession, very much to our disadvantage, and it’s a pity more of us don’t realise how simple it actually is. 

In the role of Branch Chairperson I was able to practice and develop skills in chairing meetings, and developed an effective method of taking minutes which I still use to this day.  I was given many opportunities for public speaking such as hosting technical presentations, dinners and even the national awards banquet at the Durban ICC, and this has been very much to my benefit.

I could list a few more direct benefits that I’ve received, but the point I would like to make at this stage is that all the benefits came as a result of service.  I never set out to get any benefit from my service to SAIMechE, but reckon that I’ve received at least ten times that which I put in - perhaps even more.  I didn’t plan it that way, but just as exercise brings about health benefits, so service to the profession brings about professional benefit.

I look forward to many more years of enjoyable and productive service to the Institution, and to the multiple benefits that will follow.  The difference these days is that I think a lot more about it beforehand. That’s just the way it works.

Vaughan Rimbault
SAIMechE CEO

• the result of a technology innovation either created or applied by an engineer.
• built, manufactured or generated by value-add processes both developed and managed by engineers.
• shipped and handled by thermodynamic miracles invented and improved by engineers.
• powered by energy generated by petrochemical, nuclear and natural wonders like wave and wind energy harnessed by engineers.
• used by people fed, clothed, housed and cared for via mechanised agricultural and industrial systems, including healthcare, characterised by continuously improving productivities and advances which reward us with generous free time, greater health and longer lives.

We need more Science Technology Engineering and Mathematically (STEM) educated people in every field, as a technology-driven society and innovation-based economy, it is a given.

For example, for every R1 of economic value directly generated by engineering intensive innovation and value add processes there is approximately R20 generated downstream in other fields such as law, banking, real estate, insurance. 

If we are to accommodate billions more people on the planet and address issues such as waste or material limits, we need more and more engineers and others to make it happen. We need all the engineers we can get. Even if we successfully meet all the current demand and then generate an army of unemployed engineers, an unemployed, bored engineer will literally make their own opportunities, and we will all benefit. 

Views and analysis
An example is global warming which is often the impetus for people to take up engineering. So, let me pen down my views and analysis.

Engineering marvels have enabled us to attain better food security by improving the yield per area for farming. Engineering marvels have helped us have a better quality of life in terms of both health and wellness overall by providing us with access to better equipment. Engineering feats are what have enabled us to communicate with each other from virtually anywhere.

These are not the feats of a single individual nor a small group of individuals. To get to these points we had to build upon the knowledge of the known and research and collaborate among millions of the brightest minds. But as we progressed, the scale of problems also increased exponentially.

To tackle these problems, we need more numbers of people collaborating and working together on these issues. So yes, to tackle these problems, we need more engineers, just to boost the odds of solving the problems.

If we successfully meet all the current demand and then generate an army of unemployed engineers, an unemployed, bored engineer will literally make their own opportunities, and we will all benefit.

Two-person economy
As for the other professions such as law, accountancy, or even entertainment, I agree they are important, they just don’t push the frontiers of humanity to a better level. In my opinion, we as an organism, can afford entertainment only after we have secured the safety of our existence. I read a story that may help to illustrate this. Consider a two-person economy.

One-man fishes with a rod and line and suppose he catches two fish per day. The other man chops down trees and makes firewood. They exchange, each day, one fish for one bundle of firewood.

Now suppose the fisherman invents a net which allows him to catch ten fish per day. Then, because he has always had a good relationship with the lumberjack, he decides to pay two fish for the same bundle of firewood.

After the invention, both men are richer: the fisherman has eight fish and a bundle of firewood, and the lumberjack now has two fish (and of course his firewood). The world needs more engineers because they invent the nets. Every engineer is compensated based on his or her ability to build something new or improve upon something that already exists. They optimise, research, and improve everything, constantly.
The world doesn’t just need engineers, it desperately needs them.

William A Hadley
MSAIMechE

The integration of fast computing, big data and machine learning enable engineers to be significantly more productive than in the past by speeding up and integrating processes, from design to manufacture, implementation and commissioning. This new approach is also blurring the boundaries between disciplines forcing mechanical engineers to work collectively in multi-disciplinary teams with other professionals. It also poses new challenges such as mastering software suites and manipulating complex digital models of physical systems.

Digital moods
“Multiphysics” refers to digital models that can simultaneously solve multiple physical phenomena. These models speed up the design processes and deliver large amounts of data that need to be analysed. It is now possible to simultaneously model and compute the fluid-dynamics over the wing of an aircraft as well as the forces and deflections (stresses and strains) the varying pressure profile will induce in the structure.

This is of course a very powerful “tool” that can be used to optimise the aerodynamics and structural elements of the wing in a very short time. 

Big data
Where we may have not been at the forefront is in the use of Big Data. These very large data sets have been available for many years in the Financial and Health sectors where. Colleagues working in the maintenance field, and especially the condition monitoring of mechanical and electrical plant, have had access to larger data sets but mostly used deterministic and statistical models to analyse the data.

The challenge we face going forward is that modern technology, including the Internet of Things, will make large data sets more readily available and we will need to understand how to handle and analyse the data. Data need to be prepared by cleaning it up, verifying and calibrating it, collating from different sources and then storing the data in a format accessible for the various algorithm that can be used to discover the embedded knowledge.

This new approach is also blurring the boundaries between disciplines forcing mechanical engineers to work collectively in multi-disciplinary teams with other professionals.

There are a host of methods available to analyse the data, extract information and discover the knowledge. Many of the new methods make use of artificial intelligence and machine learning where the algorithms, with minimal human input, can analyse data and discover new phenomena that
were not previously known. 

Reality check
The old saying “garbage in – garbage out” still holds and we will always need the fast and multi-processing skills of the human brain to look at the outcome and do a “reality check.” Recent experiences on the highly-automated Tesla assembly lines with the lack of humans on the line were identified as a key contributor to their not achieving the volumes and level of quality they desired.

Therefore, digital disruption in the world of mechanical engineering will indeed bring additional challenges to our fraternity. We will have to equip our new as well as experienced engineers with the necessary skills and understanding of modern data science but at the same time we must always ensure that these mechanical engineers have the required fundamental knowledge and experience to ensure that the new methods provide useful and technically valid results.

Yours in Mechanical Engineering,

Prof Wikus van Niekerk
SAIMechE Council Member

The revelation of “new to you” is something that anyone who has applied themselves to any study knows well. So, one of the first lessons I learnt in my endeavour to unpack colonisation and decolonisation, is that a student’s perception of what is real or true may be very far from reality or the truth.

It is, however, their current reality and I need to be aware of it. Perhaps the first step in decolonisation, is realising that much of what is assumed to be colonised knowledge is no such thing. Mathematics is not European, nor is science, nor is engineering. However, pretending that each student in my class is equal, that they enter our institutions with the same opportunities, privileges or challenges, is insanity. So how do I manage this environment of have and have-nots, of blissful ignorance and painful realities?

Where is the space in the engineering curriculum to incorporate an ethic of care, of awareness and sensitivity? Mathematics is not European, nor is science, nor is engineering.

Diversity of perspectives
Perhaps a decolonised bridge is designed by a local team of engineers who value and appreciate the diversity of perspectives that each team member brings. Perhaps one of the engineers is the daughter of one of the construction workers, the first person in her family to go to university.

Perhaps the bridge is reinforced with natural fibres, from crops grown in fields by local farmers who use sustainable agricultural practices. Maybe it provides a means of connecting a rural community to an economic hub; maybe it carries power and clean water back to this community.

Engineers are expert problem-solvers. Colonisation was a reality in our society. The effects are still evident and continue to pose problems for our society. These are all concrete facts. Let’s use the tools and knowledge available to us, and find a way to build a decolonised bridge.

A/Prof Debby Blaine
SAIMechE Council Member

Over the past few years I have participated in courses ranging from statistical modeling presented by John’s Hopkins to geographical information systems presented by the US Army Academy. The courses range from 4 to 12 weeks and require a commitment of between 4 and 12 hours a week.

Video lectures and course materials are provided, with graded assessments and an active mentor community. The courses range from introductory courses to advanced postgraduate level. In some cases, the courses even bear credit at their host university.

Although courses are available on a wide range of topics most fields are limited to a digital footprint, and you are not likely to get your hands dirty. Most will provide you with the theory and rely on the participants to create their own applications. With this in mind each of the three organisations listed make some capstone module available where the participant can engage in an extended application of the theory in a project setting with supervision. These are typically bundled into a mini-diploma style collection or specialisation. In some cases these can extend to full degree programmes.

The University of Illinois for instance has shifted their 2 year Masters degree in Machine Learning to the Coursera platform and whether you are a resident student or online participant you will have access to the same resources. Though some of the courses can be pricey, most will be credit bearing and provide a course certificate for around $15 - $100. Almost all will allow you to audit content and participate in the online forum for free. In some cases, the courses even bear credit at their host university.

Sealability
Although this style of online education is not likely to replace a conventional engineering degree in South Africa any time soon, it is likely that we will be seeing similar courses make their way into the existing university curriculum as an efficient teaching tool that scales well to large groups.

For those of you with your degree under your belt, there is an opportunity to up-skill yourself and your employees with some confidence without taking on the burden of creating your own programmes or relying on local 3rd party providers.

With a small time investment these flexible courses will allow you to develop up to date technical skills in new fields or refine skills from years past. It might be a practical way to transition from one field to another or provide you an edge in your current organisation.

Dr Martin Venter
SAIMechE Western Cape Branch Chairman

Suddenly, from the latter, something new hit the mainstream – the worldwide web. I’ve described it as ‘new’ but it had been developing for decades. The internet has and continues to be a game changer. As we were pontificating on the merits of e-mail, cellphones appeared out of nowhere and became a rampant disruptive technology. Eventually – and not too long ago – these two technologies merged and “social media” became a thing. (Have you ever considered how you would explain Facebook to a 20 year younger version of yourself?)

Before you sit back and think you have time to rest and recover before the next paradigm shift, please consider. Little 4 or 6 propeller flying drones have become ubiquitous and they have upset the aviation applecart. Don’t relax yet because, while you stare in awe at a 3-D printer, the tsunami of electric mobility will catch you off guard! 

Back to mechanical engineering. All engineers have two jobs, (1) build a better world with the tools at hand, and (2) incorporate it with the current, real-and-existing-now world. Let’s split our engineering community into three: young, middle-aged and mature engineers.

In the above paragraphs, I’ve talked about the tools at hand; our young engineers are growing into these and need to be helped along in the present. Mature engineers have the experience to keep the machine running and guide industry with wisdom and stubbornness. 

The middle-aged engineers of whom I am one need to step up to the plate to replace the mature engineers and guide industry. However, considering the above context, I think it is more than mere stage fright that makes me doubt my ability. How does one usher in the “new era” without having a solid grip on it. I think we – the middle-aged engineers – are going to handle it in three ways: 

1. Some will just let it happen and let themselves be phased out and grow into niches. Perhaps, by repairing old machinery. Their fate may be the same as the typists and draughtsmen who have been replaced by software.
2. Some will do enough (barely) to keep up and may stay locked into old paradigms – some out of fear of losing control, but probably mostly due to a lack of available time. (Consider the case of the construction industry’s slow move to 3-D CAD.) The current system for continued professional development caters to these engineers and will probably help them do enough to keep the “new machines oiled”.
3. Lastly there will be a group of positive outliers*. They will get into new paradigms and innovate with the moving front of technology. It is undoubtedly a very desirable thing for society to have these engineers. The more the better.
   

We as SAIMechE need to consider this group and develop a strategy to engage and support them. Mere CPD does not always enable practical know-how. And who will sponsor time and equipment to allow us to tinker and perhaps learn Python, progamme a robot or finally sit down and do a proper FEA or CFD simulation of that thing at work?

Perhaps you are one of the outliers? Maybe you will be the support structure that brings one of them about. By being involved in your local SAIMechE community, we can keep as many engineers as possible in the second and third groups. See, even engineers are social creatures!

*The book “Outlines - The story of success” by Malcolm Gladwell was published in 2008. Gladwell defines outliers as people who do not fit into our normal understanding of achievement!

Gideon van den Berg
SAIMechE National Treasurer

The ECSA Professional Engineer registration process is based on a benchmarking peer review system with the key criteria being that, in the public’s eye, the Pr Eng. certification must always be considered a top quality assurance performance standard. Engineers must always demonstrate that they are working in accordance with recognised good practice. Most Professional Service Agreements provide a useful guideline against which to measure the required performance standard of competence. The following is a commonly used definition of Good Industry Practice.

“The standards, practices, methods and procedures conforming to applicable Law, and exercising that degree of skill, care, diligence, prudence and foresight that would reasonably and ordinarily be  expected from a skilled and experienced person engaged in a similar type of undertaking under similar circumstances.”

Similar circumstances
Engineers must accept that they will be liable if they do not exercise a certain standard of reasonable skill but how should this be correctly evaluated? A person’s skill is derived from the appropriate ability, aptitude, knowledge and experience of that particular individual.

An Engineer would be judged as negligent if he or she genuinely overlooked or did not foresee the possibility of consequential harm occurring, but this same possibility would be apparent to another reasonably competent engineer in similar circumstances.

Registered Professional Engineers are fully expected to show a higher duty of care and may be regarded as grossly negligent if they undertook certain work knowing full well that they did not have the necessary special skills.

The legally accepted standard or yardstick by which professional liability will be allocated is the ordinary average and not the highest level of competence or standard of care expected of members of his profession working in the same field. Engineers should be cautious about accepting that they should provide the highest professional standard of performance.

No professional is always expected to be 100% perfect. Doctors, Lawyers and Accountants are highly unlikely to provide a guarantee to clients that they will always correctly solve every problem they are confronted with. 

On the dotted line
Engineers are advised to avoid signing an onerous agreement that demands that their services will be provided with whatever skill, care and diligence is required so that the final design will be fit for the purpose intended. This can possibly result in a liability claim because the client believes the obligation to achieve his or her understanding of a fit for purpose result was not fully achieved.

Engineers should carefully check if their Professional Indemnity (PI) insurance cover provides for this open ended fit for purpose result. Certain voluntarily or additional contractually assumed liabilities may actually be excluded in their PI insurance cover. The insurer must always know precisely the nature of the particular risk they are covering.

Today’s Engineers operate in a more competitive and higher risk environment and should explain to clients that if they insist on pushing for inexpensive commercial solutions, they cannot also then demand incompatible standards of durability as well as low maintenance expectations.

By Graeme Lloyd FSAIMechE
SAIMechE Central Branch Treasurer

Today we are bombarded with social media feeds containing messages of support and motivation; messages telling us that we can be anything we want to be, and not to be defined by any type of social construct; messages encouraging us to be individuals, and to achieve greatness, no matter how. What a glorious time to be alive.

However, this global culture of understanding and support is still new, and there are industries where sexism, racism, and other forms of discrimination, still create a culture where individuals are not supported or motivated to be great or achieve greatness.

When I was asked to write an article for “SA Mechanical Engineer”, I was honoured but a bit surprised at the suggested topic of ‘my experience as a female engineering student’. Not offended, just surprised, especially since I am responsible for the most successful student initiative within the SAIMechE in the last decade. 

Subtle acts and role divisions 
But as I was sitting down to write this article, it suddenly dawned on me that today, in the modern South Africa, sexism is no longer a blatant disregard for the female gender, there is no longer an outright belief that men are better than woman, but rather a subtle way of thinking and doing, coded in our DNA because of the social environment in which we were raised.

Today, the female engineering student doesn’t experience sexism in obvious, outright ways, but rather through subtle acts and role divisions. For example, in a group project where taking down minutes is mandatory, you will often see female students being given the role, sometimes at the expense of doing more technical work.

That is why, when projects involve building, manufacturing, or assembly, you will see female engineering students doing the theoretical work. Often the technical or physical aspects of the project are allocated to male students first, with the female students then being given the option to choose from, or volunteer for, the remaining work.

The question that comes to mind is why? Why in a world where females are celebrated and supported do we have so little female representation in mechanical/mechatronic engineering at tertiary level and in industry? Limited research has been done regarding this topic, but the most popular notion is that there aren’t many female role models to motivate girls to pursue such technical studies, or to stay within the industry after graduation, and I tend to agree.

Affirmations
The low female representation within SAIMechE (less than 5% according to the latest demographic information) and the lack of celebrated female engineers within the leadership structures of our institution and the industry in general, is evidence of this problem.

Growing up, my mother, being an educator, understood and embodied the principle that reaffirmations during early childhood development build confidence and self-worth, and both my mother and father noticed and supported my technical aptitudes all through my childhood years.

Having grown up in this type of environment, I never experienced any type of doubt about whether I could excel in a technical, male-dominated industry. But not all girls are this lucky, in fact, some are actively discouraged against pursuing technical careers after graduation. The majority of female engineering graduates end up working in non-technical positions, or working in a totally different industry altogether.

Great heights
That said, ambitious female engineering students are achieving great heights. It is now not uncommon to see female engineering students at the top of their classes, in leadership roles, or even as part of technical endeavours such as robotics clubs and international design competitions.

This is evident in the strong female representation in the SAIMechE Student Chapter initiative across the country. These ambitious female engineering students are doing just as well and achieving just as much as their male counterparts.

I believe, that as SAIMechE, it is now our responsibility to identify, recognise, and promote already successful female mechanical and mechatronic engineers in industry, as well as ambitious female individuals (students and graduates) as strong female role models within the industry to girls in school and at tertiary level. In this way, girls will have the confidence to be more, do better, and achieve just as much as any male peer.

By Marietjie M Jansen van Rensburg
(BEng Mechatronics, Stellenbosch University)
SAIMechE Council Representative:
Student and Graduate Affairs

We will influence decisions and our knowledge and skills will contribute significantly. 

In this way, as an institution, represented by our branches all over the country, we have knowledge of local conditions and should promote projects and ventures, which will most benefit our communities. Each SAIMechE branch can probably draw on more expertise than most companies, organisations, municipalities, provinces and government departments. Combined each branch probably has more expertise than the companies they work for!

The achievements listed here, are testimony to our contribution to the development and wellbeing of our society and the projects listed here also serve as a reminder of the role we have to play in the future. 

Industrial: Yskor (Mittal) – South African parastatal steel company founded in 1928 by Hendrik van der Bijl to supply the demands of local consumers. 

Sasol – First and largest oil-from-coal refinery (provides 40% of the country’s fuel). 

Coastal: The Dolos – These structures are designed to break up wave action and protect harbour walls, created by Eric Merrifield in SA in 1963-1964. 

Rail: The Scheffel Bogie – a unique railway Bogie allowing higher speed, less wear and higher load capacity on our unique narrow gauge railway lines. 

The Coal Export Railway line serving Ermelo to Richards Bay. The Iron Ore Export Line, running between Sishen and Saldanha Bay (opened 1976).

Agricultural: Dams and Irrigation Schemes - Orange-Fish Tunnel, completed in 1975, is the key structure by which water is delivered from Gariep dam to Teebus Spruit, Great Brak River and then
to the Great Fish River and Sunday River valleys.

The Vaalharts Irrigation Scheme is one of the largest irrigation schemes in the world covering 369.50 square kilometres in the Northern Cape Province. 

M-Net: (Electronic Media Network) - Established by Naspers for broadcasting local and international programmes.

Pratley Putty: Krugersdorp engineer George Pratley invented his famous sticky stuff in the 1960’s while looking for a glue that would hold components in an electrical box. Pratley’s glue is the only South African invention that went to the moon. In 1969 the putty was used to hold bits of the Apollo XI mission’s Eagle landing craft together. 

Pools: The Kreepy Krauly which revolutionised pool cleaning (invented by Ferdinand Chauvier in SA in 1974). 

By: Director Andre Roos, and Professor Leonard Masu
SAIMechE

The distinguishing educational objective in engineering is design. Design is at the heart of engineering.Engineers design new things such as improved airplanes or appliances or materials or things that do not even exist as yet. To be creative, to imagine, to take risks, to “dare to be different” but not to endanger safety of course. Engineering creations must comply with the principles of science and that is the engineering challenge: to be creative but within the constraints inherent in a specific project.

The majority of engineers work for industry or government and only a small, but important, percentage is in direct contact with the public as consulting engineers. It is important that engineering professionals, technicians and technologists should be well trained, should be well aware of the demands of their activities and always act responsibly with the public’s safety in mind.

Challenges and anomalies

The environment within which engineering is practised is not perfectly designed though to allow for the engineer to follow a logical and structured approach and thus perform optimally. Rather the engineer is presented with challenges and anomalies, most often introduced by the employer or client, requiring the utmost professional conduct from the engineer, to arrive at a safe, economical solution.

Notwithstanding this, we do succeed in designing solutions which benefit our economy in a very major way. According to many commentators, growth in the areas of science, engineering and technology are a major catalyst for job creation, social upliftment and economic development.

Easy examples are the benefits to our economy of a good infrastructure including road, rail, harbours, airports, energy, communication, banking system, water, sanitation etc, all made possible by engineering. Unquestionably South Africa benefits from a good infrastructure, allowing efficient, cheap communication, freight and transport.

Standard of living

While our engineering accomplishments in South Africa have contributed greatly to our economic development, social upliftment and job creation, the need for increased economic growth demands ever more engineering contributions, also requiring an increase in the number of technically skilled artisans, technicians and engineers.

We have the engineering capability in South Africa to meet with most demands for engineering expertise and most probably the only constraint engineering faces in South Africa is a lack of development projects and funding. Due to our knowledge of local conditions, we are also well positioned to serve other African countries.

Engineering has been vital in addressing basic human needs, improving the quality and standard of living as well as providing opportunities for sustainable development in South Africa and has the potential to do the same for Africa.

We (engineers) have in the past and should continue in the future to focus on developing solutions to meet the needs of our local industry and population.

Article by: Andre Roos, Vice President SAIMechE (and Director: Megchem), and

Professor Leonard Masu, Vaal Branch Chairman (and Lecturer: VUT)

SAIMechE

The hard truth is that engineers are employed by businesses, not training institutions. They need to contribute in a very tangible way, as soon as possible. In the context of mechanical engineering (where engineers do not need to register with ECSA as such) this has a particular spin-off. Due to business/operational constraints, much is done to/with our young engineers to make them ‘useful.’

However, on the other hand the value of ‘professional development’ is attended to very seldom. And to make it worse, it appears that, whenever engineers are ‘developed’ they are given MBAs and are removed from the technical side of operations.

I believe this ‘isolation’ - especially in the first years of employment – creates a silo culture. I’ve dealt with skillful, talented engineers, who have been blinkered by their industry and have lost sight of the  whole, beautiful, vast field of knowledge, known as mechanical engineering.

Making a difference

These engineers will eventually become bored with their small aspect of mechanical engineering and grow into the field of management sciences – since it appears there is still some excitement to be had in that field! This leaves a skill and mentorship vacuum, which in turn makes it even more difficult for the new crop of young engineers due to the lack of mentorship and role models.

This is truly the space where the voluntary associations such as SAIMechE can, must and are making a difference.

Consider two items of major importance. The first: SAIMechE’s student chapters where students are given a chance to interact with engineers and their fraternity, to glimpse a wider view of the actual industry and its possibilities. The second is SAIMechE’s Professional Development Programme (PDP). This programme, based on internationally agreed professional attributes, has been created, and is available free of charge from SAIMechE. It was created to help guide young engineers to develop into competent professionals and is in-line with the 11 Outcomes that ECSA requires from its candidates.

By being part of a voluntary association such as SAIMechE – and taking part by interacting with your local branch – you are taking responsibility for your own professional development and furthering the interest of the profession.

When you get down to it, gathering CPD points is not all that difficult when you have developed this habit. When was the last time you picked up a new piece of knowledge or a tool? There are so many things to explore... have you heard of TRIZ when you innovate or the Design Structure Matrix when planning a project?

Having read this, and perhaps given a bit of a nod in agreement, you are also now vicariously responsible to bring our young engineers (and yourself) into the “fold.”

Article by: Gideon van den Berg, National Treasurer and Chairperson of the Eastern Cape branch.

As posted in the SA Mechanical Engineer, September 2017 issue

No country or economy ever complained about producing too many competent engineering professionals. In fact, the opposite is true, and we are often reminded in the press about the link between strong economies and the ratio of engineering professionals in the population. South Africa has one of the lowest ratios of engineering professionals to the general population, and so we have good reason to focus on producing more of this valuable resource. We should aim to produce as many competent engineering professionals as we can.

The public sector has a perfect opportunity to play a role in this space, and I would like to share my vision of how this might be achieved, particularly in the mechanical engineering arena.

Every engineering graduate (NDip. BTech, BSc/BEng) who cannot find a position in the private sector, will be guaranteed a full-time position as a Candidate Engineering Professional in the public sector, on a minimum 36-month contract and at a salary equivalent to that of a junior officer in the defense force.

Basic training

There will be two intakes of Candidates per year. The Candidate will spend an initial period of at least 6

months in basic training at an approved mechanical engineering training facility which will offer exposure to the fundamentals of the occupational and practical aspects of mechanical engineering.

This will include things like fabrication, machining and workshop practice, as well as introduction to pertinent legislation (e.g, Engineering Profession Act, occupational legislation, basic conditions of employment, etc).

The Candidate will be evaluated in this phase through a combination of written and practical tests and examinations. It is not the intention of this phase to develop artisanal skills in the Candidates, but more to create an awareness of how the profession of engineering engages with the occupation of engineering, particularly in relation to the delivery of basic infrastructure. On completion of the basic training, the Candidate will be deployed within the public sector at national, provincial or local level, depending on requirements.

Candidates will be deployed considering a number of factors, not least of which will be closeness to their own home communities. Communities enjoying the fruit of their investment in the education of their children, and receiving decent basic services through the work of their own, should add significant value to this idea.

Evidence of competency

Candidates will be deployed to work on specific infrastructure projects which will provide the working environment within which professional skills will be developed. Although referred to as “basic” infrastructure, the engineering work behind successful projects still needs to take place and can be made sufficiently complex to serve as evidence of competency.

As part of the contract, the Candidate will be enrolled into a professional development programme in partnership with the engineering Voluntary Association most closely representing their engineering discipline.

All Candidates in all disciplines will do the same programme, aimed at developing and demonstrating the learning outcomes described in ECSA’s various competency standards for professional registration, thus paving the way for professional registration with ECSA. The programme will produce a portfolio of work for each Candidate, to be used as evidence of competence when measured against the standard.

An effective public works programme to develop engineering professionals will achieve two important things: add momentum to the delivery of basic infrastructure; and produce competent engineering professionals. And we need as much of both as we can get.

Article by: Vaughan Rimbault, CEO: SAIMechE

As posted in the SA Mechanical Engineer, August 2017 issue

SAIMechE has lost one of its most committed and influential members, Honorary Fellow Chris Reay, who passed away at his home in Cape Town on Wednesday, 26 April 2017.

Chris’ service to SAIMechE and the engineering profession stretched over four decades, from his service on Branch committees to more than thirty years’ service as a member of Council.

He joined SAIMechE as a Student member in 1963, and his contribution to the institution was recognised through his election to Honorary Fellow in 1999.

Chris participated at the highest level in SAIMechE, holding the office of President during the 1990-1991 Council session.  His father was SAIMechE President during the 1948-1949 Council session, giving them the distinction of being one of only two successive generations to have held this office in SAIMechE.

His influence was felt across most of the profession, from schools to universities to graduates and fellow professionals.  Many colleagues have commented on his passion for pertinent professional issues, and for holding all around him to the highest standards of integrity and commitment.

Chris is probably most well known in modern times for his regular column “An Engineer’s View” which was the leader to our magazine.  He set the bar high in this regard, and we will continue to honour him by using this space to be honest, forthright, courageous and critical of ourselves and other stakeholders in the engineering profession.

Thank you Chris, for giving us so much of your life, and for speaking out on our behalf.  We are a better organisation and profession because of you.  Until we meet again.

Note:  We invite members to share their memories and comments about Chris, either by emailing these to info@saimeche.org.za, or by commenting here on this post.

Analytico’s data is based on a sample of 93 658 university graduates who supplied salary information and other insights.

According to Analytico, people with a matric certificate can expect to be paid almost double the salary of someone who has not completed high school.

The research further showed that a tertiary qualification will significantly increase earning potential.

According to the report:

• Someone with a grade 12 can expect to earn R4,977 in their first job.
• Someone with a bachelor’s degree increases their starting salary to R8,270.

All bachelor’s degrees are not equal, however, with a big salary difference apparent in different fields of study.

The average starting salary for a person with an engineering or IT degree is R19 180, far higher than social sciences at R6 612 and life sciences at R7 412.

Occupation-specific

It should be noted that the salary figures are not occupation-specific, and attempt to provide a picture of what graduates with a particular degree can expect to earn each month.

This bears out the experience we are getting in the engineering and technical recruitment industry although the demand across the profession is significantly down from 2015 through reduction in corporate activity and retrenchments.

 Pockets of “green shoots” are emerging slowly from the ashes, and clients who are growing again are generally able to seek out their previous employees as projects emerge.

Unfortunately, industry now faces a further threat with the downgrading of our credit rating which will impact on investment, interest rates and inflation. There seems to be little indication of the NDP happening in any concerted form, and we have a lot of resources available on the market to undertake the type of work associated with infrastructure development.

The potential for engineering graduates remains huge internationally and confirms the desire for the degree after high school.

You should probably consider this if you want to stand out and be the stand-out young Engineer you want to be.

Taking Engineering seems to be a norm that many young people consider in order to keep up with society’s demands of rapid changes, innovations and advancements in technology. Many specialised Engineering courses are also introduced and the population of people taking career paths in Engineering fields gradually grows.

Competition is getting tougher, especially for new grad Engineers. Several countries produce thousands of Engineers most of whom end up in non-Engineering fields or obliged to settle in entry levels they don’t deserve. Even if you’re an Engineering graduate, you may not be competent enough.

But don’t lose hope just yet.

Here is a checklist for you to stand out and become the stand-out Engineer you want to be.

1. AUTOCAD SKILLS

We are in the age where Engineering design is not confined to 2D blueprints or sketches alone. Designs of components, structures and architectural plans now heavily depend on 3D CAD designs especially for intricate objects in manufacturing. The ability to design with Auto CAD is really a must for Engineering and architectural people in these fields.

Having proficient CAD skills certainly gives you an advantage over other candidates. If your institution does not offer learning to use CAD software, there are crash courses offered in other technical schools for a certain number of sessions. Also, there are CAD software programs and tutorials online so you can study it yourself too.

2. BASIC PROGRAMMING / IT SKILLS

At this point, hard sciences are now converging with the digital world to be more efficient and productive. There are now industries that depend on heavy database management and automated components in industrial plants (computer-integrated manufacturing). Learning how to use programming languages and algorithms is also a plus.

Even if you’re a computer Engineering major, not all programming languages are taught in school. There are also crash courses for this such as learning SQL, Mathlab, COBOL, C#, .NET, Python, Java or Ruby. In addition, online tutorials and downloadable software programs are available if you plan to self-study.

3. COMMUNICATION SKILLS

As an Engineer, our science and mathematical knowledge or technical skills are a given. But presenting and relaying it effectively is another aspect. Being a persuasive presenter gives us opportunities to be an exceptional Engineer. We must learn how to strike the right balance between technical and communication skills as they are the keys to a successful professional career.  There are programmes and workshops that can help us enhance speech communication and presentation skills.

4. PROJECT MANAGEMENT

In our profession, we always coordinate with others or work as a team in a department. Engineers who become project managers and learn how to manage a project and a team can have a successful career. Having project management skills enables you to lead project or programme teams and will eventually allow you to master the dynamics of a project.

From there, you can handle more complex projects and be appointed in leadership positions. You can also draw other professionals together and open opportunities for business and personal growth. There are institutions offering Project Management as an elective and also a Project Management Professional (PMP) certification.

5. PROFESSIONAL LICENCE

As they say, licensure is the mark of a professional. It means you are at the top of your game and your profession. It is a standard recognised by the government, the clients and companies assuring skills and quality. It has now become a requirement in a number of Engineering firms and corporations. Having a professional licence assures the public that you can perform Engineering work. It is also seen as a commitment to your profession and gives more opportunities in your career.

6. GRADUATE DEGREES (MSc / MA / MBA / Engg D / PhD)

Today, a number of professional Engineering societies are considering making a graduate degree the mandatory credential for would-be Engineers. They require master’s degree in finance, business administration or industrial Engineering in order to advance in managerial positions. Millennial Engineers opt to take master’s degree units and certifications while working in order to raise their credentials and value of being a professional Engineer.

Some high positions need a certain depth of knowledge and expertise in a particular Engineering field so that’s where these graduate courses come into their own. Engineers must not be limited to their majors but must continue to learn and diversify into different fields.

The numbers that have undergone retrenchment are horrendous typically in the EPCM and EPC domains. The opportunities for graduates remain consistent although employers are hesitant to undertake training programmes that graduates need in order to fulfill their professional registration requirements. It is an ideal time for this process to take place as long as suitable mentorship is available.

With the hopeful advent of the NDP, we should expect a demand on the engineering profession, but indications of this are slow in materialising. Infrastructure is in serious need of upgrading and development particularly in matters of water management and transport, electrical distribution and support of health care facilities.

What of manufacturing? Are we winning or losing this battle? All these areas of engineering activity need all the engineering disciplines and skills we can muster if the economy is to start growing.

Litigation process underway

Another serious matter has made itself apparent in our profession and it concerns the flawed process of appointment of the new council at ECSA. The VAs (Voluntary Associations) have followed due process, but essentially, the old council agreed on a list of people to be appointed as the new council. This list was then forwarded to the Minister.

When the Minister made the appointment, it was noticed that the list appointed was not the same as the list that was agreed upon by the old council. At this stage, we are not speculating on who changed the lists. We simply want to ensure that due process was followed as per the Engineers Professions Act (EPA). We believe, and after seeking legal advice, that there is sufficient evidence to the contrary and that the process was flawed, which concurs with the legal finding of the CBE.

Previously we sent official letters to the Minister of DPW and the office bearers of ECSA. They have not responded. We have therefore instructed our attorneys to lodge papers in the high court of South Africa. This sees the full litigation process underway.

ECSA is changing all the current systems to effectively disregard the services provide by the VAs in the form of committees. As to whom will now provide these remains to be seen, but it looks as though ECSA will be run by an administration, and hearsay is that they will work on changing the Engineering Professions Act.

How all this will align with the various Accords of which SA is a member is anyone’s guess.

Of these, the item that is reasonably positive is that 75% of the Engineers surveyed were confident about the future of their profession over the next five years, primarily due to expected financial viability and contributing to society. Of the 25% who were not inspired by the future, the most negative factor is the political climate.

64% would encourage their children to study engineering, but 94% are concerned about the standards of maths and science at the tertiary level. The pessimistic 25% regard the lack of good jobs and retrenchments as the cause, and many are concerned that good Engineers are considering leaving the country.

87% are worried by the brain drain on the profession, and 54% are considering emigrating, with politics being the main driver. Countries of choice are the USA and Australia. 65% of employers offer internships to graduates.

Reasonably positive

On the question as to whether the government is delivering on its promises to create infrastructure, 96% voted a solid no on this.

According to the National Development plan, more efficient and competitive infrastructure is needed to meet the objective of the plan. By 2030 key services such as commercial transport, energy, telcoms and water has to be strengthened to ensure long term sustainability. 91% believe this will not be met.

When we consider the skills and experience that are needed to design, build, operate and maintain infrastructure, the low level of confidence exhibited by this survey should be considered in a serious light by government as well as private developers. As to what factor would have the most impact on the profession over the next three years, the economy got the biggest vote at 62%.

Investment savvy

83% of engineers believed that they are investment savvy, but only 44% had an established plan in place and 51% had a combination of financial products, so only 5% have no structured financial plan in place. On work/life balance, 50% consider it as average while 33% said good and 13% said poor.

Overall, what can we conclude from this survey? It is accrued from the top levels of the profession who give the government and policy a distinct negative vote. How else is the country going to tackle the challenge of economic growth with the belief that so much engineering talent is being misused?

The engineering profession has seen unparalleled demise of jobs across the board. Mass retrenchments under section 189 rules have effected most of the large employers. The radical decline in new projects is evident. It has demonstrated the impact that our mining industry’s demise has had on the whole downstream industry.

We are stuck in a hiatus of no growth, unclear policies and government more concerned with political agendas than real demonstrable action to get the economy moving. The protests affecting higher education are a major worry as the effects on education and graduation of students is having a significant impact on professions. We now wait to see what the outcome of the review by the ratings agencies will be.

Employment has taken a knock and disposable income as well. The emergence of entrepreneurial activities is being suppressed by lack of funding for SMEs at a time when we need this to drive new business.

Raw materials

It does however appear that commodities are showing promise again which we hope will ramp up the projects in mining and processing. Can manufacturing get a leg up from this as it limps along at ever decreasing outputs?

I do believe that a Trump government will see some positive effects on the demand for materials for the projected infrastructure programme in the USA which should have a role for our raw materials. This is what we should have been doing with the NDP which has been stillborn since 2012 and only now getting some attention to address our infrastructure needs.

It shows how rapidly the economic recession has transformed the country. I reflect back on as recently as 2014 when the profession was actively deliberating and planning the solutions for the scarce skills agenda. That has terminated as we now contemplate how to get our existing skills employed.

Backlog

The registration of Engineers, Technologist and Technicians has overcome the backlog and extended waiting times at ECSA. We now need to concentrate on developing our Mentor force using the material in the PDP. This will form a major part of SAIMechE training in 2017.

Funding for the PDP programme is now available from the SETAS. There are plans to develop an online webinar based support programme on the PDP which should, in particular, facilitate the requirements of trainees who are located remotely.

This being the last edition for 2016, may I take the opportunity of wishing all members a restful December and a prosperous new year.

The number of views as to what this all means and what the results will be are as diverse as those making predictions. Suffice it to say that overriding aspect remains undisputed: the massive debt burden that the global governments and the public are carrying, effectively debiting the credit cards of the next generation. QE has in effect just kicked the can down the road and is postponing the pain of reset that should have occurred after the 2008 crash. The eventual reset would likely mean the collapse of much of the central banking system and debt write-off .

Let’s hope we can get the gold and silver mining industry going again along the lines of its former glory. Would mechanised methods be used, and can we create a sustainable all-stakeholder structure that includes safe mining practices, well rewarded Miners, decent living conditions, treated mine water, associated and supported industries such as agriculture and localised manufacture, and cooperative unions?

Studying the current developments by Sibanye Gold gives one a real level of confidence that this can be achieved. If Sibanye ‘s model can be successful at the current gold price, imagine the opportunities if the price goes near the projections of US$ 5000 per oz and silver maintains its price ratio with gold.

Clearly this is not in the Treasury plans to get this growth going in SA, but it could emerge by default as a windfall from the stressed global economy. But assuming this works, then we must ensure that it becomes the enabler for both the traditional and new downstream industries that have always been the hallmark of the SA mining industry.

A big challenge is the investment required to revamp the mines under close-out or care. Can the vast resources of retained funds by investment funds and industry be a source of this financing? After all mining feeds the very industries that would be involved.

The reverse flow of skilled and experienced engineering resources referred to in last month’s leader article continues and is witnessed daily. Thee is still no evidence of serious activity in the National Development Plan (NDP) and the 19 Strategic Infrastructure Projects (SIPs). If the Minister and the group from the private sector really want to do something effective, surely this must be one of the growth goals? There are so many competent resources on the market that one would wish to see actively involved in managing the SIPs rather than scouring the industry for new jobs.

With the encouraging shift in the political balance following the municipal elections, will we see some active realisation by government that their neglect of the economy becomes evident to them?

Ultimately, it is all a result of the debt based currency systems which have been manipulated to create the biggest debt bubble in the history of money and currencies. Anyone interested in the impact this is having on world trade should look up the Baltic Dry Index records. It is a very interesting metric that measures the shipping movements between continents. It is at the lowest index level in its history.

Out of most misfortune one hopes for the glimmer of positivity. In the current economic saga is the possibility that there will be a replacement world reserve currency that would be based on a value backing, and the most obvious is gold. Silver may have its role as well.

Some protagonists of this are predicting a massive hike in the gold price. Two interesting issues are evident. China is buying large quantities of gold, and the USA banking system and Fed are doing their best to suppress the price. Gold is no longer following the commodities index and going its own way.

SA does not have any perceptible agenda on the table, let alone observable action, to get economic growth going to uplift the rate of wealth generation and make an impact on the rating agencies. Would the rise in the gold price to such an extent happen such that it provides acceptable margins above the cost of recovery in a stable manner and be an option to get our gold mines going as before so as to help a bit?

It is of concern that we are losing, and have lost, a significant number of our experienced resources including Mining Engineers who have in the past managed our gold mining industry. We see them leaving the industry: retiring, leaving the country or moving in to other careers. From our historic role as number one we are way down now, not sure where.

For one hundred years SA has effectively grown its economy based on mining and commodities. The investment into that has almost ceased. Have we learnt anything from history that should have prepared us for the end of that boom, and undertaken development of other industries?

The NDP has proven to be stillborn and the excitement created in 2012 on the need to train up skilled resources to enable us to build the SIPs has waned into a dilemma that we now have surplus skills and no projects. It appears we have no funding for them now.

John passed away in October last year with complications arising from asbestos exposure in his early days. It is suspected that it could be a result of working with the type of piping insulation used in power stations.

John qualified as Nuclear Physicist in England prior to joining Eskom where he played a major role in the nuclear department and in the Koeberg Project.

John had a very visionary view on the role of nuclear power which was the main content of his regular articles, expressed in his skillful and erudite manner. He was an excellent writer, the quality of which was commented on by most readers. Writing a regular feature for a monthly journal with its unforgiving deadlines is a major commitment, especially when done as a free service and when it becomes an element of the publication that readers turn to with great expectation.

John saw a definite role for nuclear power in the SA mix but certainly not in the magnitude as currently identified by government. Disappointed at the closure of the PBMR project, he hoped that other developments in nuclear would emerge of the same scale. With his background in nuclear physics he was able to give some in-depth evaluation on the various technologies that are available and that are being researched and tested at present.

John was involved on promoting and encouraging the development of engineering resources for a future nuclear programme and had addressed many aspects of this including the following:

• Promoting teaching, research and innovation capacity in South African Universities in strategic areas in the nuclear field
• Facilitating nuclear skills development through skills transfer programs as part of technology acquisition from local and international suppliers
• Creating a continuous pipeline of high school learners into the nuclear industry
• Developing a critical research and skills base to support the nuclear programme

John retired to Fishhoek with his wife Susan and was a regular player at the Clovelly Golf Club. We had some memorable sessions quaffing good wine at the Waterfront pondering over the state of nuclear in SA and the issue of having the local SA branch of the UK Institution becoming an independent SA Institution which in fact did never materialize.

Such subordination could include training up other line persons in the organization to find a supporting role in sales. Sales training should be an existing function in any organisation so the sales team could be extended to include these resources.

What about marketing, which is strictly the identification of opportunities, where sales is the exploitation of them? It is often said that everyone should be a sales person for one’s employer. Involving the rest of the team in the marketing and sales strategy can generate a lot of unexpected new options and get the spirit and drive going across the organisation.

A recent global survey, which included SA, revealed that in these slack economic times, the number of employees actively searching for a new job increases noticeably. In the case of sample SA, the results showed that more than 4 in 10 employees were seeking new positions, and our statistics indicate that this is higher than the global average by some 16%. The quarterly shift is particularly evident.

The expectation (following the big strikes and the commodity price collapse) for retrenchments in the industries affected by mining investments has been borne out dramatically. The impact on the value chain from capital investment in new mines all the way through EPCM, EPC, Consulting Engineers, main contractors, suppliers to the small business providing nuts and bolts, is a harsh reality. It becomes even more stark when we realise that SA was effectively built and developed on mining for the last 100 years.  Thus the need for radical strategy shift is urgent. A big, new marketing and sales challenge.

Essential to this is the need to define, locate and employ the human capital to operate the business. All business is doing it, but not well. My own research with many industries over some years on identifying the constraint in the business shows that there is an overwhelming belief that it exists in the lack of having the right people in the right place at the right time. This is almost a no-brainer. In my own, and in the opinion of many in the industry, is that the current process of recruitment is flawed and has been usurped by the role of HR. HR should focus and interact on the internal resources and keep them happy or at least find out what makes them tick. That might then reduce the frequency of the look-elsewhere-and-lose-staff syndrome. Recruitment is a different process requiring different skills, tools, databases, market knowledge and expertise, especially in engineering.

Until management addresses the human resource constraint with processes that protect and elevate the constraint, things will not change. It should be seen as a strategic issue at board level. It will simply be more of the same. Delays, lack of knowledge within the recruitment process, poor selection in terms of environmental/cultural fit into the organization will continue. In the days when the line spoke directly to the recruiter that understood their business, appointments were faster, better and more permanent. At least in engineering. I know, I have been on both sides. However, too much emphasis is placed on finding the perfect fit at below market value, and too little on the need for induction and mentoring in the new role. The metrics of selection are outdated and mostly inaccurate. A good start is so often messed up with poor internal conflict and dubious management skills. Hence the high turnover rate.

We are finding that matching by functional auditing is breaking the mold and needs to be seriously considered by management.

What is being described here is a living cell, of which you typically have some 10,000 trillion in your body. And as long as you are alive, they are all working pretty well. They work hard to ensure that your energy and survival remain at a sustained level. In another way one could conclude that the system entropy remains low as there is normally no degradation until we actually expire. Even then, at atomic level, the parts rush off to work elsewhere.

While the body collective is at work, it will be receiving energy in the form of sustenance to feed the cells. As long as we feed in sufficient energy, we will get work output. If we overwork and take out of the system more than we put in, the active system will die.

In this exercise we will assume that the system is the SA economy with all its persons acting as the cells, the actions of which should be planned by a cohesive design to create the energy such that its consumption is less that its production. That design would be the rules and practices set up by those in the role of having been elected to do so. The problem arises when the architecture is flawed and fails to provide a net energy growth by suitable conversion.

This is a long way round, couched in technical speak, that implies that the model in question is running out of money and all indications are evident that it will do so within the next 2 to 3 years. The intervening circumstances however will be horrendous.

We need a built environment to provide the right conditions for the people to generate the energy (wealth) to sustain the system. We as a nation are in serious trouble with the deterioration in the number and type of projects that build the economy. Engineered projects are not happening. The commodities base of the historic economy is dying, if not already dead, and the downstream activities are starved of action including the EPCM, EPC, contractor, supplier and service roles that have been the backbone of the SA economy for 100 years. We are witnessing more retrenchments in our measured scarce resources than take-ons. The result is scary to watch and many facing the situation are seeking opportunity outside SA. Our own policy makers seem to believe it is all the global economy’s fault and wallow in their comfort while the citizens face accelerating hardship of unemployment and despair. If we ever, by some magical formulation, reverse the rot and start to provide a growth path, we will then, like an ironic twist, face the biggest skills’ scarcities ever. We do not have the project environment to enable our young engineering resources to train and gather experience. Thus the centre of gravity of the useful, experienced resources is perceptibly now in the 50-70 age group who we must utilise as Mentors and Coaches for the younger resources. But where are the projects?

What can we as the engineering intellectuals of SA do about this? For decades we warned about the electricity crisis and have been doing so about the water situation and lack of infrastructure maintenance which is now emerging as predicted. It was ignored. How do we get the message of entropic creep into the minds of government? We know it is probably beyond their comprehension to understand anything with a thermodynamic flavour which is why we endeavour to provide “simple” analogies.

Foreign investor attitude is changing: billions of dollars that were directed into our shares and bonds over the past two decades are being withdrawn. When the tax base revenue declines below the endemic ability of the government to spend on so much non-productive activities, we will of necessity have to go cap in hand to the IMF. That will change the rules of the game by force.

Try messing with the proven mechanisms of a living cell. It is usually catastrophic.

As Engineers build the environment, and that environment will need to keep being built and maintained, we as a profession cannot contemplate that we will not be needed. It is evident that whatever the growth state of the economy is, engineering resources are always a scarce skill, and whilst one may measure numbers and deny that this is a reality, when it comes to quality, skills and experience, it holds true. Don’t be blinded by cycles, they are fact of life. Of concern however is the growing gap in the age demographics where the rate of retirement from the profession and the lack of commensurate restocking from the entrants to the profession is causing the centre of gravity of available skilled engineering resources to move into the higher end of the age spectrum.

Your Institution over the last three years has developed and beta tested the PDP, and is at a stage where it is ready to move into a productive phase by involving all the necessary players. The goal is to produce professionally registered engineering resources for the economy. SA is still well below the accepted international norms of numbers of engineering resources per head of population, a relevant number if the level of a competitive industrial economy is to be achieved. In meeting this goal, there are a number of necessary conditions (NCs) that have to be in place and all operating at their required level of performance. No goal can be achieved if one or more of those necessary conditions are not in place or working.

The PDP business case has thus identified the following NCs.

1. An accredited competency standard under the authority of a regulator – the New Registration System (NRS) with ECSA.

2. Candidate engineering resources – graduates from tertiary institutions that meet the various qualification accords – Washington, Sydney and Dublin.

3. Employers – providing the workplace environment and supervision roles.

4. Mentors – registered and trained (by SAIMechE) in the application and facilitation of the NRS.

5. Money – to fund the training and mentoring activities required by the candidate. SETA and any other funding to pay Mentors to facilitate cells of candidates.

6. A curriculum that provides a methods guide to the parties that becomes "the rules of the game” for all parties to follow and which facilitates the processes that meet the needs of the candidates to be able to submit the evidence to the regulatory authority to enable registration.

It therefore must be clear on evaluating the above that if any one (or more) of these is missing or does not perform, then the goal will not be met. Registration is not an end in itself. It should be seen as the recognition of the ability to meet the appropriate competencies defined in the eleven outcomes, but also to provide the successful candidate with a basis of on-going improvement to aspire to meet the challenges of the built environment.

The PDP in fact under its facilitation and guidance, provides the successful candidate with an SAIMechE Certificate of Competence that meets exactly the needs of the NRS for the ECSA submission format.

In this sense, the SAIMechE is trying to be proactive and keep the show going however the economy performs. It is now time for these parties to get in on the act.

It is evident that since the advent of emails, cell phones and now smart phones with multiple messaging options, that keeping physical addresses up to date is really only kept live by the banking systems insisting on having the FICA data but that is normally only updated when the banks call for that.

As long as print is mailed then physical addresses need to be kept current This is an issue that faces the likes of SAIMechE with the magazine, and it suffers from two issues that arise with physical addresses: change that is not notified and the inaccuracy or limited information provided by the Member which results in the item being either returned to sender of dumped at the posted office. Very often outdated or unattended mail boxes are too full to take any more mail. Problems with the efficiency and reliability of the post office itself frequently add to the amount of undelivered mail.

Address databases are renowned to be inaccurate or badly configured. I am at least three separate customers in my bank. Implementing a FICA update for the current account information does not get fed to the other accounts. It would seem that modern configuration management is a foreign practice to most banks as the format for collecting the same data varies across departments, even though the ID number is common.

It is unlikely that physical address accuracy will never be required even with all our advanced electronic communication as some form of hard mail will need to be used. It just seems that the processes for updating the address on a systematic basis is flawed. Updating of mail addresses is invariably left late so that mail continues to go to the previous address. Will GPS via mobile smart phone location ever be able to be a source of this at an accuracy that is dependable? Now that’s an app opportunity.

Let’s look at a specific case. We have about 4000 addresses to which our magazine is sent each month. On average about 5 percent are returned for reasons that the address is incorrect or cannot be located due to paucity of detail.

The best way we can keep up to date with addresses of Members is to request a regular email feedback on the receipt of the Torque newsletter on a prescribed format with the option to tick “no change” to keep it simple.

          And then there is Shakespeare’s Hamlet, on contemplation….     

To BEE, or not to BEE - that is the question: 
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer 
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune 
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles, 
And by opposing, end them.

A brief analysis of records of the power strategy set up in the late 90s illustrates how, what appeared to be a well-structured and integrated plan, simply fell apart. Of significance is the complete lack of achievement to privatise a growing proportion of generation and distribution via IPPs, a situation now being forced on the system out of survival. The strategy to implement the REDs was abandoned. Then add the decision to cancel the PBMR, which if pursued with the same vigorous focus of the synfuels, uranium enrichment and arms development projects under sanctions, could have placed SA as global leaders in small nuclear plant. The planned completion of the additional 2 coal plants has not been met. 

The availability of the existing installed capacity dropped from the earlier 80-90% to 50-60%. Planned maintenance was neglected. Eskom now has a funding crisis. It has failed to provide for replacement of assets. And now it is limiting the ability of the economy to grow. All in all, a dismal record of failure of the government and Eskom. Forget excuses, apartheid etc. It's the sheer incompetence and poor management to execute their own plans. Too much has not been achieved to be anything else. We had the experience and skills, but politics overcame pragmatism. I repeat what I said some weeks ago: things are done by people: better people do things better. When will this change?

If the above graphic does not strike alarm and concern into the reader then nothing will. In case of this being in doubt, let’s look at the goal metrics that apply to an electrical utility’s installed capacity. In the “orange“ period above, the targets were set and drove the behavior of operations and maintenance of the assets.

Uptime : 90% ; planned maintenance: 7% ; unplanned outage: 3% (This was the 90:7:3 programme)

85% was a common achievement across most of the power stations. The 7% was mandatory.

Currently we are informed that the following is being achieved (with variations, but of the order shown)

Uptime: 65% Planned maintenance: ? unplanned outage: up to 35%. Hence load-shedding.

We now have a “war room” and musical chairs in the board and executive. Load shedding is now regular, new-build costs rising and high anxiety among consumers. If you bother to review the last Eskom annual report, one can get no idea at all of the mess it is in. Great, rhetoric and wonder-numbers that convey things are going right. What we now see is an exhibition of bungling policies, incompetence and mismanagement. We are none the wiser as to the action plans. The damage to SA is a crisis.

Fellow Engineers, let’s solve this problem.

“We can’t affect the furnaces, but downstream, we have to shut the mills for the times when we are asked to cut back. He explained that the R1.5-million-an-hour loss was calculated based on the closure of Vanderbijlpark’s hot-strip mill and its downstream operations, as well as halting operations at Newcastle from “the rod mill and down”. A CEO statement.

The view below is from an ex-Eskom Engineer. (1977 – 2004 - Forced to take early pension due to Affirmative Action) 
Eskom (when it was the Electricity Supply Commission) was one of the best power utilities in the world. It was owned by all South Africans, and was a non-profit making organization. Money was always set aside, by selling electricity for more than it cost to produce, making surplus for replacement and expansion (No World bank or Government loans). It created its own sinking fund. In 1994 it was turned into a business with the government as sole shareholder. This was done to collect further tax from those who actually pay for electricity and to provide a vehicle for the implementation of government policies in the form of job creation and black empowerment. Profits, and the money set aside for replacement, expansion and maintenance, was paid to the government as dividends.

The sole 'shareholder' directly appointed most of the executive, and non-executive directors. These appointments came out of the ranks of the ANC, and were people with little managerial or power plant experience. Appointments were often based on nepotism. 

They couldn't do the work, but the people who could do the work were retrenched based on skin colour, and some were then re-employed as contractors. Although no real additional work was getting done, (due to lack of funds because of the increased work force of roughly 23%) this was considered acceptable because the government wanted to reduce unemployment. In order to bring relief to poverty stricken townships, Eskom directors were instructed to produce the cheapest electricity in the world. This plan did not work, because of all the extra wages, contractors, a management team that did not have a clue how to run a power utility and which resulted in Eskom running into huge losses for the first time in its history. To compensate for this, the incompetent management team cut the maintenance budget by 55%. These were the first “cracks” in the once stable, profit making power giant’s foundation. 

You will have to live with it and decide if “it’s not a crisis and the government knows how to address it”.

For all the “must” talk in which those in government indulge, very little actually gets actioned. If there have been intentions to make it easier for small business to flourish, then they seem to fall into the category of rhetoric only. I learnt only this week of a new product line that the manufacturer has introduced into some 105 countries over that last five years, and who has stated that SA has been the most difficult, bureaucratic and plainly obstructive of all, as though the intention is to prevent the business from proceeding. And it is one which would enable the self-owned business or entrepreneur to develop and grow with little investment other than time, hard work and focus.

We are all tired of reading the usual “speeches” by officials at the interminable conferences and congresses about what we “must” do. Most of it is simply common sense that does not need a Minister to harp on about as though it were new rocket science level discovery. “We must improve our science and maths at schools” stuff as though it was news to us. All interminable talk, little action.

Now there are the new entry requirements for potential immigrants and tourists. Ministerial prerogative finds it acceptable to defy the objections from the airline industry, employers seeking specialized skills, tourists and business in general. The vulnerable falling Rand and investment rating downgrades do not encourage foreign skills currently on Dollar, Euro and Pound rates seeking a Rand equivalent in SA to get accepted. It’s too high for local industry.

The “reality” dashboard shown last month continues to see the pointers moving further into the red. Is it believable that the policy makers can be so disconnected from the reality of an economy in crisis? The “cleva people” as defined by Zuma are noticeably and more audibly astonished and frustrated by the lack of concern and action. Do they really think that the NDP is going to save the country? Please, Mr Minister of Finance, do answer the question we have been asking for the last 3 years: from whence cometh the R840 billion to do the 18 SIPs projects (in three years - your own claim) and where will the required skilled engineering resources, placed in the right structures at the right time, come from? You will also need to rescue Eskom first.

Shortly, a presentation on the most recent exercise on scarce engineering skills will be presented at Ministerial level. It has taken note of years of ineffective action and will make some radical proposals to get skills development moving properly. The SAIMechE input made it evident that candidate phase training needs to be taken seriously by both employers and the SETAs with the SAIMechE providing a facilitating role to enable the collective participation by Candidate, Employer, Mentor and Supervisor focusing on the criteria of the outcomes by which the programme is assessed. Those industries that are the likely participants in the SIPS/NDP will be asked to identify the resource needs at a job specification (not generic) level so that training in those disciplines can be actioned.

I would like to ask one question of the Minister of Higher Education. Do the subsidies that are paid to universities for the students in the Faculties of Engineering and the Built Environment get used fully for that purpose, or are they diverted to other “non-engineering” causes?

I am writing these words as the engineering based industry, having just had a serious dose of platinum deficiency syndrome, is now steeped in a viral bout of non-metal-working plague. It is going to take a patient with a very strong immune system to overcome this one. Many of the limbs that support the body may simply not survive, suffer from permanent damage and shrink into a state of paralysis.

All the machines (that are working) are monitoring the patient as follows. For clarity, the health monitor dashboard terminology has been calibrated with economic metrics.

Productivity: declining with the record showing the index has shown a reduction of 41% in the last 10 years. The meter rider position shows that the current level is the lowest in 46 years.

Employment: declining.

Unemployment: Increasing

Economic growth rate: Declining, now below 2% pa

Rand parity with world currencies: declining.  Rand: US$  1994: 3.55:1   2014:10.80:1

International Investment rating: Declining towards junk bond status

Corruption factor in government and the economy: increasing, reaching epidemic levels

Infrastructure status, education and service standards: declining

Small Medium Enterprises development rate: at best static but declining in small manufacturing.

Inflation rate: increasing

“Real” recession: evidently active and technically in stage of stagflation

Cost of living of basic items basket: rising (at alarming rate)

Centre of gravity of skilled and experienced engineering resources: moving into 50-60 age spectrum

Potential for Engineers to survive economically at retirement: declining

I do not think we need any more metrics to realize that the patient is in really big trouble.

Project management has had few really significant breakthroughs over the last 50 years with the exception of the applications of the TOC to the processes. Reviewing the statistics published by organisations that carry out this type of research indicates that the overall project failure rate (as defined by collective metrics) had not changed since the early 80s and has remained at a level of some 70%.  Indications are emerging that over recent years this may be starting to improve.

Projects essentially fail on the two main measures; costing well over original budget and finishing well beyond due completion date. In fact it can be said that there is no such thing as a project that meets its original cost estimate even though it may finish on due date. The challenges that arise in projects which require resolving normally face the inevitable conflict: finish on time at no increase in cost or finish at original cost with no increase in time.

TOC realized that until measures to address this typical conflict were created, the situation would not change. The thinking processes reviewed the assumptions being made and extent of the focus. The most interesting to me is that the changes that TOC proposes are of a human behavior nature rather than high-tech algorithmic solutions. When this difference is observed by the new-comer to TOC, the response is often “why all the hype, it looks like common sense to me”. Eli, is his characteristic way, would respond that the observation is entirely correct; the problem is that common sense is not that common.

Projects are once off activities and have not had the benefits of the production industry that has adopted the constraints theory to implement and practice the focusing steps. Touch time in projects is long whereas in production it is generally short. But both processes utilise the same fundamental rule of applying the focus onto the constraint, subordinating to it and making use of buffer capacity to meet the throughput requirements.

The evidence is now robust that the most effective project improvement that has occurred over recent times has been from the application of TOC methodology.

What can we learn from all this in the hoped-for implementation of the 18 NDP projects? It is apparent that whatever project approach one uses there is one endemic mistake made on so many projects today. That is, starting to construct before the design is complete, which is to me a culture driven by the bean- counter mentality that, in its ignorance, believes the project will finish sooner and cost less.

A quick lesson from TOC would propose the following: start activities as late as possible, ensure resources are available which includes design work, avoid multi-tasking with limited resources , cut the normal (over) estimated times back by 50%, allocate half to the task and half to the project buffer, start the activity on time and thereby run your project with safety in hand instead of losing it before you start.

The biggest concern I have for the NDP is the evident lack of engineering and project management capacity at the Owner’s team level. Will government, provinces and municipalities take this issue seriously and ask private industry to help with resourcing this?

Engineers would be inclined to agree on the need for the NDP, the 18 Strategic Infrastructure Projects (SIPs) and the spin off from the designing, planning, constructing, commissioning, maintaining and operating of all these projects. These will use all the engineering capacity that we have, and more. Never mind from where the investment funds are to come from, that remains all smoke and mirrors and it’s hard to believe that the country will suddenly find R800 odd billion and then spend it over three years on completed projects.

Perhaps closer to the Engineer’s concern is, if we had all that money, where are we going to find the sufficient number of engineering resources to spend it (properly)? We will avoid contemplating the potential behind the corruption that is now endemically entrenched in our country with very little accountability. The efforts to ascertain the available engineering resources by the PICC/SIPs/DHET/ECSA/Volunteer committees will presumably produce some results but so far the numbers do not seem more than high level estimates. I believe it was an exercise to find out what we already knew: we have a scarce skills problem. My own evaluation is that the systems and processes used cannot measure the extent of the scarcity in a meaningful way if the time frame is that of the SIPs programme. This is an example of breaching a very fundamental engineering ethos: if you cannot measure it, you do not know much about it. Clearly, if the metrics used to measure the scarcity do not take this into account, the process while necessary, is insufficient.

The 18 SIPs projects are reasonably well defined at a high level. From this a start should be made to identify the required resources by a reasonable relationship between project size and type. The reality is however, that those who will need the resources normally specify the needs at a granular level, not a generic level that emerged from this committee. Efforts of the SAIMechE to propose a model to measure the needs, to locate as many as possible from the existing market and to focus Candidate Engineer development in those scarce areas are met with a sort of glazed, unconvinced response by the “authorities”. After all, we have to find ways to spend R800 billion effectively, but it would appear that to spend a few million on getting knowledge of the course to take to manage the scarce skills issue is considered either too expensive or unnecessary. The real reason is uncertain as the response has been nil. If the proposed model were to show a return on investment, it would only have to save about one thousandth of one percent of the programme budget to cover its cost. It’s a no-brainer when one realises the costs, delays and consequences of the scarce skills impact on projects. Take a look at Medupi and the Durban-Jhb pipeline as examples. Consider the impact on infrastructure service delivery alone.  There are legendary other cases out there that show the result of technically incapacitated owners’ teams alone.

The new outcomes based registration system for Engineers is now underway albeit that ECSA has not yet developed the online system for the capture of the submission data. The release of the systems for Technologists, Technicians and Certificated Engineers is in progress.

SAIMechE, under its Professional Development Programme (PDP), has finalised the development of the training curriculum for each of the eleven outcomes, the submission capture formats and the introduction to the complete programme and the training programme for Mentors who play a necessary, regular and specified role in the process. The PDP has been developed using the exact outcome and assessment criteria for registration as those formulated by ECSA under the R02 model. SAIMechE will facilitate the Candidate's training programme by the provision of the documentation that guides the Candidate on the requirements for each outcome and the coordination of the activities via a monthly Mentor facilitated workshop per Candidate cell.

We call this the regular procedure that is intended to be applied to facilitate the training programme for professional development for members of SAIMechE. This process will result in the issue of an SAIMechE Certificate of Competence that will enable any holder thereof to use the same content to apply for ECSA registration.

Accordingly, SAIMechE is inviting its members to consider applying for the role of Mentor for the PDP. The role will be defined in the Mentor training programme. This includes the review of all the PDP curriculum material, the workshop process, guidelines on the forming of candidate cells for ease of access and meetings, referee roles, sign-off documentation, remuneration and administration functions. The referee or sign-off process must finally be done by a Mentor who is a Pr Eng.

Ideally the business model would encourage a Mentor to seek and oversee up to six candidates in a cell who would all attend a one day workshop per month. Each workshop addresses one of the eleven outcomes in turn, thus making eleven workshops per annum per cell. Depending on the number of candidates available to an area, a Mentor could select to practice mentoring full time for as many days of the week he or she chooses. Thus the income potential is attractive.

This is a bold move forward to stimulate the level of professionalism in the industry and to utilise the valuable experience of the Mentor. The question remains, can we find sufficient Mentors?

If ever there was a time when we wanted the good news, it must be now. A time to listen to that classic hit by Crocodile Harris " Give me the good news”

If we accept the word forever
Maybe we should live together
And not be scared to watch
The late night news
You can't use guns to build a nation
A bullet never was creation

Engineering wise, SA is really in the doldrums. Can we be positive and expect that things should now get better? That, of course, only happens if people make it happen, so we can do some dreaming that we hope will turn to reality. Positive thinking helps. Consider the options:

The active start to the National Development Plan. The 18 strategic infrastructure projects actually start to happen. The talking and conferences that have consumed any energy associated with them stop and the action starts.

We get let into the secret by treasury as to how these are to funded. The engineering community is invited to participate at the highest level in the Owners’ teams, the project planning and conceptual engineering to ensure that the projects are correctly structured, engineered and managed. The politicians wake up and realise that it’s all about the built environment, and that is created by science and experience, not hollow, electoral promises based on ignorance.

Government and private business interests start to work together for the common goal of increasing the economic growth rate: what about an economic codesa? Corruption gets serious attention.

The unions and the mining industry together reach a win-win understanding and proceed to jointly add value to our massive commodity assets sitting underground that are useless unless mined and treated in a competitive manner. This in turn encourages the reluctant and unconvinced investors to consider SA as a less risky investment destination. Funds start to flow into the economy again and the current account deficit reverses back to a reasonable level. The Rand stabilizes.

Education? Well, while we are dreamimg and hoping, the training and development of teachers becomes a reality as this is the primary necessary condition for our youth to acquire the essentials of literacy and numeracy. The 30 % pass rate becomes history. Idle Funds in the skills development and Seta accounts are applied to the training of engineering resources including the funding of Mentors.

Last but not least, the government becomes convinced that cadre deployment in place of resources with skills and expertise is a disaster.

If you are willing to be part of the solution, by clicking onto http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JACJjid9WWY should provide some inspiration.

Some recent investigations into the views that engineering resources have on the benefit that they accrue from the HR function in their organizations is most revealing. It is almost entirely negative.

I adopted a neutral role in the inquiry process so as not to influence the issue from an emotional perspective as I have my own views on the role of HR in the recruitment process. It just was so evident that the consensus confirmed my own views.

The first issue raised is how much do HR practitioners know about the role of engineering functions that enables them to assemble a job specification that is meaningful and practical?

The second issue raised is how much do HR practitioners know about the role of engineering resources that enable them to actually evaluate CVs with any credibility?

The third issue is how many engineering resources feel almost insulted when requested to be interviewed by a young inexperienced HR person who may be half the age of the candidate and possessing some soft skill qualification perhaps at the most. Those that pass this session of questionable worth are then selected to proceed to the line management interview.

Then the issue is raised as to the time line management spend evaluating the CVs presented to them. It continues to astound me as to how fickle this is. If the assortment of technical boxes is not ticked or the candidate is too old or has not been in the same type of business, there is invariably a rejection. I have seen more time spent adjudicating offers for a conventional pump than spent assessing the credentials of the most valuable asset in the company: the Engineer.

We have a scarce skills problem and do not think that the current economic downturn is going to have any significant impact on this other than in the short term in specific roles.

Some suggestions to address this issue.

1. HR must desist from making it apparent they are constructing their own job needs by becoming a valueless and time consuming constraint in the throughput process of recruiting engineering resources into employers.
2. HR must cease the process of "cutting and pasting” as many functions in intricate detail into job specifications. Some of the inclusions are hilarious at best.
3. Any job specification that calls for a large number of very specific skills and experiences that the employing body is calling must ask themselves: where is their own succession planning? Who "out there” is expected to provide these in place of your own organisation?
4. Enable communication between the candidate and the line Engineer to discuss detail even before the formal interview.
   
5. Use recruiters that understand Engineers and engineering as a profession.
6. Start seriously undertaking the training of Candidate Engineers within the employer organization and stop expecting 35 year old Engineers with 15 years of high value project and business experience to be waiting around for your call.

At the recent workshop held by the Department of Higher Education (DHET), the President’s Infrastructure Coordination Committee (PICC) and the Council for the Built Environment (CBE), the objective was to assess the status of the scarce skills in South Africa by assembling Occupational Teams (OTs) that would be assembled largely from the voluntary engineering organizations and academia. Two days were spent following the earlier work done by the PICC/DHET/CBE team to prepare a list of what was determined by the 18 Strategic Infrastructure Projects (SIPs) to be the scare skills for this programme. This list covered the management, professional and trades identified as such by the Organising Framework for Occupations (OFO) model.

The 18 SIPs are identified at a very high level, for example SIP1 being "Unlocking the Northern mineral belt with the Waterberg as the catalyst”. For what was alleged to be "security” reasons, not much else is published on this SIP to expand on the detail, but it can be reliably gathered that a large component will be for coal mining development to take up the supply that is dwindling in the Witbank/Middelburg area.

The projected list of scarce skills, when reviewed on the basis that it should enable some effective action to commence, is in my view a rather useless piece of data insofar as the Mechanical Engineers are concerned. It simply shows "about 500” needed at a scarcity level of "20-50%” whatever that may convey.

The SAIMechE team filled in their answers to the OT list on the wide spectrum of questions and these will then presumably be assembled and evaluated for action with all the others. Most of the questions we have been addressing for years that seem to do no more than lead to the next conference or workshop. One simply comes away with the feeling of perpetual talk and no perceived action.

The first concern the team had was that the workshop called for voluntary conveners to fill variety of time consuming roles, and this just seemed to illustrate a poor business model. Here we have the National Development Programme (NDP) with its first 18 projects worth hundreds of billions of Rand in total installed value (TIV) that has no funds to pay for a properly structured resource development team that would comprise a fraction of a percent of the TIV cost. It simply illustrates the importance given to this role in the success of the programme. There is no contracted leverage with voluntary teams.

The SAIMechE team made three constructive, actionable suggestions. Firstly, establish a top level professional resources team who would be paid to get the scarce skills issue measured and solutions developed, and which would be in a position to advise the SIPs owner’s teams on the appropriate resources required at owner’s level that could be seconded from the profession in a similar way that the accounting profession does for state bodies.

Secondly, develop a model for evaluating availability of scarce skills to identify the scarce resource with the relevant, engineering specific attributes. It is based on the Engineer’s credo that you do not know much about anything until you can define and measure it. Scarcity needs to have two references to be measureable: what you have and what you need. Accordingly SAIMechE could offer to facilitate working with professional engineering resource recruiting bodies to create a large and well configured, best-in-class, dynamic database of engineering resources for these and other South African projects. By simply stating that we need a number of Mechanical Engineers does not resolve the issue. The only time the real scarcity is known is when the employer specifies the need at granular level of definition. For example one can search on Mechanical Engineers and get hundreds, but then ask for those with the specifics such as 10 years of coal plant processing experience or conveyor and coal chute design, one may be lucky to find a few if any under today’s dwindling expertise that largely exists in near retirement age groups or who may have emigrated.

Thirdly, with this information and working with the employers undertaking the projects and who issue the job specifications with these details, we can identify those who should be taking on the Candidate Engineers that wish to do their training under the SAIMechE Professional Development Programme. SAIMechE would be the paid conduit to provide information on scarce skills to the PICC or the CBE on an on-going basis enabled by the dynamics of the model. We need to ensure that the expectation of perpetual voluntary work by professionals is not presumed. It’s a business reality to pay for value. It would it addition be of value to be able to second experts from the Membership, exploiting the immense, collective intellectual capital of the Institution and effectively meeting the essence of the mission statement.

After many months (years?) of no apparent action following the publication of the National Development Plan, various bodies are now awakening to the reality of the resource requirements in order to be able to effectively manage and spend the billions on infrastructure projects.

It was always going to be a tough challenge: R800 odd billion over three years. Someone was smoking something to actually believe that this was viable. Dwell for a minute on the realities of project spend patterns. Firstly, no spending pattern is ever linear, or in terms of Rand over time, would it ever represent a consistent average from start to finish. Thus represented, it is the area under the curve that amounts to the total project spend.

Forward to reality: project spending patterns have the s-curve feature: they rise slowly as concept, design, procurement occurs and then start to climb steeply as deliveries and construction follow. It then tails off at commissioning and handover. The essence of this that there is a peak, and for the area under the curve to meet the project budget, the peak is considerably higher than the average.

What does this mean? Most likely it means that resource needs are not linear and have the same peaking nature. So when estimates are produced reflecting the numbers of resources needed, are these factored by the time axis? Most times not, and we invariably get the classic multi-tasking that is imposed on the scarce resources. This then adds to the potential delay in due performance dates being met. Multi-tasking creates its own delays, and anyone who believes otherwise should attend a few workshops that demonstrate this admirably.

Let’s then add another classic activity that for some pernicious reason remains the foundation of project planning: critical path scheduling. How many projects ever give consideration to the only development that has had the most time and cost saving successes on projects over the last 50 years? It’s called critical chain scheduling. As an aspirant believer in this process, it continues to amaze me that management does not know that it even exists let alone how it works. Far worse is the regular experience one has in presenting the process to the potential users, who most times praise the fundamentals that define the process, but return home only to be faced with the common response - business as usual.

Well, the NDP could do a lot worse than, once the reality of limited skilled and experienced resources has sunk home, have a good look at adopting a critical chain scheduling philosophy. It may just assist in preventing the project durations and costs to emulate the dreadful experiences we seem to have with most major projects such as Medupi.

The usual responses continue to be heard to using such a significant variation to standard procedure. It is too difficult: management won’t understand it. Perhaps then we need to study the experiences of major USA and Japanese projects as examples that have proved the point. The main changes occur in the human behavior of project management due the discipline imposed by critical chain principles: prioritising projects, assuming most durations are overestimated, aggregation and buffering of the safety before it’s lost, starting on time and measuring progress in time and not money. It not only sounds sensible, but it actually works.

It is hard to comprehend that our once successful and world class power utility is now in such a parlous state of diminished competence. The engineering professions have since 1992 warned that, if the government believes in its economic growth projections based on GEAR and ASGISA, then as with any power utility that depends for base load on the 6 pack fossil or two reactor nuclear plant configurations, then start building them without further delay, and to stop kidding themselves that private power interests would want to get involved with investing here on the returns available with the (admirable) historically low unit cost of Eskom’s supply.

Aside from now facing the reality of a major national economic driver failure and the frustrations and anger of business and citizens, Eskom will have to face up to the formidable task of recreating the lost institutional memory and capital in the form of experienced engineering resources to manage both the capital programme and the maintenance of a very stretched system. My own observations and interaction with Eskom, commencing some four years ago on the efforts to provide resource input to the Capital Development Department have been nothing but amazing in the naivety and misplaced belief then that all new Engineers would need to be black females! The affirmative action obsession will come back and bite them big time. Eskom now faces the additional challenge of global demand for good and experienced power engineering resources. In a hysteresis-correcting like manner, they will have to bend back dramatically to reverse their losses, as their mistaken belief that training is going to solve this one should not fool the public. We all know how long it takes to mould a useful, productive, experienced Engineer.

Overall the blame for being politically naïve and failure to heed the advice of experts must lie with the government and the Minister of Public Enterprises. It is hard to believe that those tasked with the responsibility for energy management fell into the realm of unconscious incompetence ie they did not know that they did not know, as the warning bells were loud and clear long ago. I recall Ian Macrae, a past CEO of Eskom, stating "if you stop Eskom growing, you stop the economy growing” How true this is going to be. What must international investors now think about SA as an investment option? Load shedding, rationed power, inadequate skills to recover, the possibility of skills actually depleting further…..and worse, it seems not much convincing light at the end of the tunnel. It is now time that the government and Eskom paid some attention to the significant collective expertise that exists out in the community in the form of retrenched and retired white Engineers who have earned their T shirts in the power industry. Eskom’s current constraint to recover throughput as an active power generating asset will be the supply and retention of skills. It will take some inventive strategy to get that act together but until I see some real serious concern to realize this, then the consumer is going to add desperation to the frustration that power rationing, higher tariffs and unforeseen outages are the future for a long time. Below are some of the statements from the Eskom annual report which I include for a bit of light, masochistic reading:

"Eskom was recognised as a utility of global stature in 2001 when it received the Financial Times award for the Global Power Company of the Year.

Power outages in 2006 and 2007 have brought into sharp focus the vulnerability of the power system. Several factors came into play – higher than expected demand, unplanned outages, and more importantly, a diminishing reserve capacity. In recent years the reserve margin for generation capacity has shrunk to between 8% and 10%. We aspire to a reserve margin of 15%.

As the provider of 95% of South Africa’s electricity, our contribution may be the most fundamental of all in supporting economic growth in South Africa – another reason for the exhilaration and heightened sense of mission that have characterised Eskom’s activities over the past year”.

Missing conclusion: We ran out of power because, together with government, we were not competent or experienced enough to plan and manage the energy system of the country. Our exhilaration may be short lived, as the disillusioned consumer must now pick up the tab for our actions.

Just in case the reader did not notice, this is a word for word repeat of the SA Mechanical Engineer leader article of January 2008. The more they stay the same….

The generation and distribution of electricity must without question be an absolute and necessary condition to enable a country to build a modern economy. A quick review of the history over the last two decades reveals that Eskom did not build any capacity into the system until the load-shedding crisis of 2007-2008 made it blatantly apparent that we were in big trouble. The projections by energy experts and Eskom themselves since 1997 were not heeded by government. It thought it would rely on the emergence of independent power producers and not did listen to the warnings that such players only took part if the investments made sense. Eskom had built many modern 6 pack stations that were considered world class and lead the way with large units, the use of pithead locations and the use of high-ash content coal. Eskom had developed a well versed owner’s team with a top level intellectual memory and capacity that knew about power generation, transmission and distribution. Their model was to design and install stations that did not try to experiment with untested technology and politically dictated management structures. It knew the need for experienced skills.

Fast forward to today. Our now infamous political interference habits are coming home to bite us. Eskom, on top of a few bouts of knockout increases in tariffs, then requires a 16% price adjustment per annum for at least the next five years. The surpluses that had been generated were taken by the new government for other uses instead of providing for a sinking fund. Lovely cash cow. Who worries about the future capitalization? This is then compounded by "removing” the retained intellectual memory and replacing it with an inexperienced owner’s team. This team manages to mess with maintenance as well, so that the reliability of the installed capacity is compromised.

Then the message hits home: we must build two new stations: Medupi and Kusile. We are not that good at estimating, especially as we decide to go for bespoke specifications instead of, under the pressure of the circumstances, relying on the experience of established project structures and know-how. The projected costs of Medupi rise from (well who really knows?) anything from R87 billion to now R105 billion and counting, and the date of first synchronization has moved from 2011 to 2014. The messages from the site are scary: you do not know it all. Be aware, things are bad.

So we connect the dots and what does it reveal? It takes no rocket scientist to figure out root cause. I have never indulged in that horror practice of being politically correct, and whilst I will say this, it is now the almost universal opinion in a noticeable crescendo.

Transformation without education.

If that is not readily apparent, then one should not be surprised at the dangers of a gathering storm.

In the debriefing meeting, Engineer enquired as to the purpose of the machine, the units of production and the throughout rate. "The machine is meant to produce a product called a GDP. We set it up to meet the needs of a market of about 50 million users, and to increase its annual output by 7%. No matter what we do it hardly meets even half of the user market, and is now only increasing by about 2% per year, and is absorbing most of our capital. You can see it needs some fixing, and up to now we have not used any Engineers, only our usual consultants. We think it may be time to consider the views of an Engineer.

Professional Engineer was then permitted to inspect the machine, test various components, take readings and then produce his report, having addressed this complex problem in accordance with the Exit Level Outcomes of the Engineer’s competency criteria. The essential elements of the findings were as follows.

1. The main problem is that the machine has three major functions that are all working against each other, thus stifling GDP at the material mixing stage. The three parts driving these functions are the Free Market Economy device, the SACP device and the COSATU device. Each is directing the raw material into different processes.
   
   
2. There are a large number of components fitted that are not up to the designers’ standards. We have listed many that were selected and fitted based on the coloured boxes that come from the favoured suppliers, and not from those meeting the working requirements in the specifications.
   
   
3. A lot of the raw material feedstock and many of the essential parts and correct spares for the machine have allegedly been removed from the factory, and are unaccounted for in the materials audit we did. It appears no action is ever taken to rectify this.The electrical power to the machine has frequent trips. Switchboard distribution components such as breakers are reset, a dangerous procedure, and no maintenance records are evident on any of the equipment. Much of it has been left in a dysfunctional state. Reviewing the costing records, the energy input price and labour costs have escalated alarmingly and well over the market inflation rate, and productivity of a GDP unit per worker has fallen by 40% over the last 10 years.
   
   
4. We reviewed the company’s annual report to attempt to glean some earlier financial and production records, and noted that the auditors have qualified their audit report every year since 2000.
   
   
5. We noticed that many of the factory workers were not busy, and in enquiring from HR, we were told that the cost of dismissing them is very high and that HR spend most of their time at the CCMA putting the company’s case against workers who have clearly failed to perform. In fact, while writing this report, the machine was stopped and the workers were out on strike apparently demanding a 60% wage increase, free housing, free medical aid and shorter working hours.
   
   
6. We reviewed the qualifications of all employees to evaluate suitability for the operation of a high technology production business and we noted that none of the Directors and Senior Managers has any technical qualifications or experience in GDP production.

Our report accordingly recommends a complete change of management, recruiting and training the appropriately qualified staff, removal of the functions of the SACP and COSATU devices, disposal of all the pirate parts used from the coloured boxes, re-order of the specified parts, the overhaul of the electrical systems, and the immediate introduction of a hire-and-fire labour policy. Without such measures, the machine and the factory will have to close down, with the accompanied non-production of GDP and the increase in unemployed workers. The shareholders need to act to replace the Directors at the next AGM.

For the uninitiated who explores the process of applying as a candidate for registration, the extent of the documentation and the interpretation of the requirements can be somewhat overwhelming. It is all contained on the ECSA website.

The essential differences between the two systems is that the legacy system focuses on the input criteria or training and experience content, whereas the new system is based on an outcomes content and assessed against eleven specific assessment criteria. Both pursue the achievement of professional competence as the goal.

Of interest is that the process is generic for all engineering disciplines and it only identifies the discipline where the guidelines require that the type of workplace environment must be appropriate for that discipline. The essence is to develop professional competence and not a high level of technical skills. One could readily conclude that the competence criteria would apply to just about any other profession. After all, the ability to communicate well, be ethical, use knowledge, analyse and solve problems and manage effectively must apply to any profession, whether it be medical, legal, accounting or in soft skills. It is perhaps a chance now for engineering resources to take up more assertive and visible roles in structures outside of pure engineering. Could this be a mechanism by which the engineering profession enhances its social status to be better represented on corporate boards and government structures?

The need for professionalism within the engineering ranks is being identified by many employers with whom the Institution has interacted recently. Commentary such as needing the types of competency skills outlined in the criteria rather than super technical skills are becoming evident. "We can get technical know-how relatively easily today from the available sources, but we cannot get the professional competencies without the sort of development you are describing” is not an infrequent response.

Accordingly, the SAIMechE is developing the Professional Development Programme (PDP) to extend the fundamentals of the ECSA requirements into a facilitated training and development initiative that effectively enables the candidate to readily envisage a practical process of achieving the required outcomes in their workplace environment, how to interact with the supervisor and mentor and participate in peer group sessions to progressively practice and reach a competence standard at professional level to confidently assume responsible roles in industry and society.

SAIMechE has recently launched the Road to Registration workshop on the events calendar. In due course, it envisages each of the eleven exit level outcomes being offered as a full day workshop for the benefit of registered and unregistered members.

You are a Mechanical Engineer. You work in the South African industry. It would be hard to find any activity that is some way does have some connections with the South African mining industry. Connections take the form of user of the mined commodity, supplier of equipment, supplier of services, and ultimately has some dependence on the value that mining adds to the GDP of the country. If you are part of a consultancy, a project management group, a construction company, a financial group and countless businesses from large multi-million Rand organizations to SMEs, it is very likely you will have connections with the mining industry. Mining flows in the veins of South Africans and so it should. We have been told that, following a Citibank survey, we literally sit on an un-mined value of some $2.5 trillion in commodities. The largest in the world.

Just what did we do with this asset that has been given to us for free and left to our collective responsibility as a result of our being the residents and citizens of the country? The early pioneers started out bravely, successfully investing money, technology, hard work and facing unprecedented risk head-on to build and place South Africa at the top of the gold and diamond production world-wide. We have some 80% of the world’s known platinum ore and a good deal of most of the others. We pioneered the mining of high-ash content coal and assisted in the design and development of boilers that can burn it effectively and efficiently to evolve some of the best and most admired and low cost six pack power stations in the world that supported the mining industry. In the early nineties we had some 800 high tech researchers across the board tackling challenges in the mining industry. We thankfully still have a flourishing mining supply industry that designs and builds bespoke equipment to service the industry here and internationally. We had the best Mining Engineers in the world, lots of them, and the older ones mentored the younger ones as a matter of course. We were King of that shining castle.

Take a snapshot today. What comes to mind? Marikana, closed platinum shafts, strikes, poor worker living conditions, reducing productivity, rapidly rising input costs, electricity prices rising at a rate to not only render a lot of mining uneconomic, but a lot of industry as well. We have dropped in the league of gold mining countries from first to fifth. Where are many of our talented mining resources? They are now running the mining industries in Australia, Canada, South America and Central Africa. Our research group has dropped by a factor of ten. International investors are openly advising that we do not really feature on their screens at present: the unchecked talk of nationalization, the regulatory confusion created by the MPRDA and SIMS reports has taken its toll. Perceptions are real, not imaginary as the Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) seems to think.

In my book, if the rule applies that those who set the rules and call the shots must be accountable, then that lies fair and square with the DMR. It is not surprising that we see these debacles in the mining, energy, education, health, security and infrastructure functions in South Africa. When the goal is political power at all costs ably assisted by inexperience and an illiterate and innumerate voter support base, then do not be surprised when a competitive nation declines to mediocrity.

If anyone can propose a solution to extricate ourselves from this mess and turn ourselves up again, then we need all the help we can get. Otherwise the bell tolls for thee.

I guess we have to criticize the laws of the universe, those annoying and inviolate laws of science and the basic engineering fundamentals for not taking account of the inability of those "leading” the functions of the built environment development and essential skills training in South Africa to achieve the standards required to meet these laws. Why uphold compliance with nature’s laws when it is much easier to change the need for them by a politically driven relaxation? It is clearly far easier to decide to set regulations for practitioners and contractors to use the surplus numbers of unqualified persons to be awarded government contracts for purposes of building the infrastructure.

After all, with this policy and approach we can meet the necessary political targets which seem to be far more important than ensuring compliance with structural, life-cycle and safety standards that have evolved over decades of proven engineering practice. We must learn to be satisfied with our new-found decrees from those that rule, and we can even indulge in some self-praise when we comment "……that bridge was nearly strong enough……… we were quite close really”.

So, in keeping with the above aspiration to continue our acceptance of adjusted standards and drive for the common denominator leading to "a better life for all”, the Minister, ably assisted by the cidb, has recently decreed the following”

"The key amendments include the removal of the requirement for contractors to have registered professionals in their permanent employ; this is to be removed as it is not viable to have such professionals in a contractor’s full-time employ". "The requirement for the Registered Professional is therefore being moved from a contractor registration requirement to a contract management requirement as a condition of contract”.

Essentially, the roles of the Professional Engineer, Technologist and Technician will now effectively be subservient to that of the registered Construction Manager on matters where professional engineering judgment is required. I guess with the comedy of the self-inflicted war games that have been played out between ECSA and the CBE over the important subject of Identification of Engineering Work (IDoEW), not much more could have been expected. Those unregistered Engineers or at least those practicing as such can continue to act without any fear of liability as the rules that govern registration, ethics and safe practice do not apply to them. The IDoEW deliberations commenced in 2006. It’s now 2013 and we are still counting. The profession has messed about arguing while we witness a steady entropic decline in the built environment.

On the topic of training of young Engineers in industry, I thought I would recall some gems that arose in 2012 whilst endeavouring to persuade certain employers to consider taking on basically good candidates and provide some development and experience to assist feeding talent into the skills pool.

"We do not have the time, the money or the systems to train anyone. Just find us a qualified and experienced Engineer. We need a PDI between 30 and 35, with 15 years experience as an Engineering Manager”. (Allowed cost to company will remain undisclosed here to protect the guilty.)

"We do not have time to train or develop anyone into this specialized role. Please find us fully qualified candidates who can hit the ground running”. No acceptable candidates have emerged to date.

Cyril Ramaphosa has confirmed that the ANC policy is to spend R845 billion on infrastructure in the next 3 years. I found that his recent TV interview conveyed blind optimism and was most unconvincing. I can only assume that he does not know that he does not know what is needed to do that properly. Professional government and provincial owners’ teams and supply contractor capacity appear not to feature in his model.

Anyone who cares about developing professional engineering skills should be made aware of the new candidate training curriculum that will be instituted by ECSA and the Voluntary Engineering Associations in April 2013. It identifies the exit level outcomes that define the professional and will be the fastest and most effective route to competence and registration that can be envisaged.

• Too few people work.
• The quality of school education for black people is poor.
• Infrastructure is poorly located, inadequate and under-maintained.
• Spatial divides hobble inclusive development.
• The economy is unsustainably resource intensive.
• The public health system cannot meet demand or sustain quality.
• Public services are uneven and often of poor quality.
• Corruption levels are high.
• South Africa remains a divided society.

Then, in November, the commission produced a draft National Development Plan for 2030. It contained recommendations covering the following areas. Let’s call these the Desirable Effects or DEs for short. We can see that these are in effect the inverts of the UDEs, and hence become objectives or what we will classify as ambitious targets.

• Create jobs
• Education and training
• Expand infrastructure
• Transform urban and rural spaces
• Transition to a low carbon economy
• Provide health care
• Build a capable state
• Fight corruption
• Transformation and unity

Then comes the following, almost casual assumption: South Africa can become the country we want it to become. It is possible to get rid of poverty and reduce inequality in 20 years. We have the people, the goodwill, the skills, the resources – and now, a plan.

Assuming that the ANC finds the time at their Mangaung conference to review and approve the plan, then the 20 year implementation process has to actually start. The ANC has never shown any glory in action and implementation to follow their renowned rhetoric, so herein lies the test to see whether the assumption made by the plan is more than the usual innuendo.

Let’s take a reality check on the proposed elements of the plan. We can approach this with a mindset that has evolved from a fairly long exposure and many practical applications of the theory of constraints, commonly abbreviated to TOC. It is evident that this NDP challenge is a case of aspiring to a number of ambitious targets that not only require the full dependence on their specific necessary and sufficient conditions, but that such conditions can exist without any mutual conflicts. The practice of using the strategic and tactical mechanisms of the ambitious target process makes the assumption that the target is achievable and is approached in a confident frame of mind rather than one of disbelieving scepticism, which understandably, most commentary on the NDP has generated so far. Intuitively, the NDP is doomed to failure primarily as a result of an historical lack of effective management execution in SA. Any amount of political innuendo will not overcome that reality. What we can only hope for is that the government, as the sponsors so to speak of the plan, will draw on the intelligence, skills, experience and proven competence of available resources to set up, design, articulate, prescribe and monitor the plans making up what we should in fact call a programme, as it

will be a collection of interactive and dependent projects each requiring skilled planning and management execution. The best must be used, not the most politically favoured.

There is one very fundamental factor that will render this programme so challenging that it should convince us of the need for the most radical, urgent, collective effort. I will simply call it the Rule of exponential projections. It is evident in reviewing the listed DEs that every one of them is essentially population growth rate dependent. From 2000 to 2011 the Mundi index shows that the growth has been 12,8% in net gain of population numbers, or an annualised rate of 1,2%. This moderately low (recent) increase in the population was due to the escalation in HIV/Aids driven deaths. How this will change in the next 20 years is an unknown, but it could increase if the treatment measures are effective. 30% of the current population is 14 years old or less and all reaching the job market age in this period. There are an estimated 4,7m unemployed persons in the employment spectrum at present, so a rough projection shows that we need to create about 4.7 m, plus those jobs to employ the 14 year olds, plus the result of the population growth over this period. In my maths, the NPC vision to create 11 m jobs (see the plan) over the next 20 years means we shall have more unemployed in numbers than we have at present. So the elimination of unemployment and hence poverty would appear to be a pipedream and we question whether it has taken exponential growth into account.

Clearly economic growth is required to create these jobs and it has to occur at a higher exponential rate that of the population needing employment. How does one converge these two lines? We either limit the growth rate of the independent variable (population) or radically increase the dependent variable (economic growth rate). If not, the lines diverge and the problem becomes greater. Many goals are missed due to the prevalence of linear thinking.

The ability to provide the management execution to all these components of the programme requires skilled and experienced resources (primarily technical: Engineers, Technologists and Technicians) to be available at the right level and numbers to implement the projects: infrastructure for example requires that the reinvestment into the assets of the infrastructure must equal the rate of depreciation just to remain static. Again we will find that the curves diverge if we cannot reverse the current trend in historical deterioration of these assets without replacement. The infrastructure is currently in a state of serious entropic decline with little evidence of major projects in the pipeline.

If the growth rate of urbanisation which is a major factor in overload and breakdown of infrastructure exceeds the rate of infrastructure growth by only 3,5% per annum, the magnitude of collapsed and underserviced urban population with all its attendant troubles will double in 20 years.

What are the simple fundamentals that must be followed in the big plan or programme? Firstly, identify the goal of each ambitious target of the programme, identify the constraints, subordinate to them, elevate them and keep following this process ensuring that interim pre-defined milestones are being met. Prioritise what will drive the throughput to meet the goal. Do what should be done and do not do what should not be done. Do not waste resources and time, for example changing town and road names, when the resources should be used to manage the required activities to achieve the programme objectives. Utilise the best available management and capacity to execute the processes.

South Africa has a major constraint in the numbers of productive resources that it can apply to this pending challenge. Unless some sense is brought into the skills space alone that reverses the current trend to enforce misplaced affirmative action, uses the experienced skilled (and ageing) work force, raises compliance levels for entrance to learning institutions, discontinues the employment of political appointees into roles instead of competent persons selected on merit, reviews the negative impact of the labour laws, formulates effective policy on small business development, and identifies measurable, interim milestones over the next twenty years, then I have to say that the great plan will fail on the basis that reality is again being replaced with political imperatives that make the appeal of the planning commission to the public to join forces "to make miracles” nothing more than hollow rhetoric we have come so used to hearing. And the exponential rule waits for no one.

"The overall matric pass rate for 2011 was 70%, up from 61% two years previously”.

Here are some of the results about which the reader can conclude as to how they could possibly provide any confidence in SA developing a scientific and mathematical culture sufficient to support both our future trades and professions, and compete internationally.

Compared with the previous year, there was a 40 % higher number of dropouts who did not write matric, thus enabling a higher percentage pass rate.

"The average mark for the maths paper was 29%, for physical ­science 32% and for life sciences 38% (after being adjusted up from 34.9%).” To obtain a final mark, Umalusi adjusts some of the marks either up or down based on various statistical factors. Umalusi refuses to explain how this is done, claiming it is it is a highly complex, technical and qualitative process, and presumably, they conclude, is beyond the comprehension of the public to understand. Unofficially, insider comment is that it is done because learners could lose bursaries, universities would scoff at the unadjusted grades, it could jeopardise those intending to study abroad, and it could prejudice those with good marks whose figures were not adjusted.

Overall, it is beyond reason that the acceptable pass rate for maths and science is 30%.One wonders if we can envisage how such low levels can produce candidates capable of mastering simple, daily numeracy let alone designing structures, undertaking complex medical operations and carrying out actuarial evaluations. Such pass levels, however, are clearly sufficient to qualify to become politicians. 

For it was they who disbanded the Teachers Training Colleges which had historically provided a standard of teacher required to understand the subjects they had to teach. It was they who decided after many expensive overseas trips and conferences to introduce the OBE system against the advice of many countries and academics that had experience of it, if not for the simple reason that it only works in highly cognitively advanced environments. It was they who have now got the teachers’ trade unions into such a state of self protection and poor work ethic that is pervasive at public schools. All I can say is thank goodness for private institutions and parental involvement that are producing a high grade of students, albeit very small in real numbers.

It is imperative to address this alarming state of affairs by getting to the root cause of the problem: surely teacher quality and work ethic. Fudging numbers to give the veneer of success achieves nothing and in fact hides the reality that results in our current skills, unemployment and service delivery crises.

Insofar as the feedstock to the engineering profession is concerned, I was amazed at some recent edicts that we must draw on our rural communities (many serviced by under-provided schools) for our future engineering resources, clearly motivated by a strong dose of political correctness. When will this level of thinking which should know better about the challenges facing the professions that require a high standard of maths and science get real? It is imperative to draw their feedstock now from the top schools that produce the distinctions to keep the numbers flowing to the tertiary institutions. We have to find engineering students which have the capability of maintaining an acceptable quantum of the right standards across the built environment and in sufficient numbers to reverse the net loss from the profession. The real issue is that SA is being steadily duped by a government that has evolved some sort of DNA that controls a process that achieves the lowest common denominator, not the highest common factor. Certainly this is not a formula for a competitive country.

Those that argue that the constraint moves about up and down the chain almost randomly need to realize that for this to happen, the chain processes have been so capacity balanced that none of them contain the buffer capacity to allow them to subordinate to the selected constraint. The supply chain for the production of engineering resources can be treated the same way. Clearly the demand end of the process, which defined the throughout requirement, can vary, but in a growth economy this generally defaults to a steady, marginal increase of an historical capacity. This in turn is affected by the harmonics of the international and local economies. However the principle remains inviolate because as the constraint moves elsewhere in the chain, management of the chain must respond with proven constraint based interventions.

Analysis of the engineering resources supply chain locally will yield the following findings. The projections of market demand indicate a shortage of the appropriate qualified, skilled, experienced and employable engineering resources (from Engineers to artisans), so it appears that all processes in the chain at present are under capacity. This includes primary education output, secondary education output, tertiary education output, candidate training output, and eventually workplace experiential development output and on the job mentoring. We may be producing graduates but are they employable? A product of non-conforming quality does not meet the throughput criteria.

To try and improve this then, all processes must be considered constrained but at any one time there will still be what we will call the system constraint. Each process has its lag time for improvement. As I see it at present we have an enforced and ridiculous capacity limitation at the demand (industry) end. We glibly talk of the shortage of Engineers, when we have created a situation where the centre of gravity of the skills currently lies in the age group 50 to 70. But peculiar and illogical reasons seem to prevail to exclude this capacity from normal employment. This results in major deficiencies. One, we cannot engineer our projects properly, and two, we are failing to utilise the experiential skills in a mentoring role for the younger resources in the supply chain. A stabilising effect is that generally the older resources do not job hop at the expense of business continuity.

As the engineering profession, we should know better and make this evident to management. How do we assist with the solution?

Firstly to government: Get primary and secondary education sorted out ie produce literate and numerate feedstock for the tertiary process. Secondly, the tertiary institutions: upgrade the throughput capacity but maintain the standards that a scientific profession needs by the well developed accreditation process. Thirdly, the Engineering Council, the Voluntary Engineering Associations (VAs) and industry: upgrade and speed up the throughput of (registerable) engineering resources via the Candidate Phase training process. Fourthly, the National Skills Fund, the SETAs and SAQA, do what you have to do to enable (dormant) levy funds to pay retired Engineer Mentors, and for the training curricula costs developed by the ECSA and VA based Candidate Phase development initiatives that can be used by industry.

The perverse antics of the investment banking community and those that believed in the ever growing value of assets that had no energy (value) actually added to them and the printing of dollars to bail out the losers, has left in its wake what must be no more than a painful correction to comply with the laws of energy. The dangers now posed by the dollar and the USA's debt pile are horrific. When the USA sneezes, then the rest of the world gets a bad cold. We can call this the macro threat to SA because international trade will be affected. Then we go to our local scene and try to evaluate if we can handle this pending debt tsunami only to find we have been playing some bad rule breaking games of our own. Our (new) political dispensation learnt little from the old regime and in fact seemed to find quite a bit attractive about it even if assigned different labels.

World-wide, nations have failed to invest in the appropriate level of infrastructure to keep up with the burgeoning population. It has used up service facilities, minimized maintenance, splurged on quick returns, ignored sustainability, deceived and lied to voters who seem to take a while to realise it. Locally, SA has probably come first in class for messing up education from the ground up (let's play OBE and close the teachers training colleges as well), disposed of its well developed intellectual capital (the best mining skills and artisan training in the world), replaced its ability to manage the infrastructure by providing comfortable salaried positions for its buddies (failed municipal service delivery), reducing food production (handing agricultural assets to those untrained to manage them) amongst others.

Who contributes to the adding of energy as distinct from taking it out? Politicians? Lawyers? Accountants? Social Scientists? Medics? Bureaucrats? Do these add energy or simply move it around and consume it?

If Engineers feel aggrieved at being unemployed then we can affix blame on the way society values creators. How many industries actually take training of engineering resources seriously, and how many managements and HR departments find more value in preserving the company from the liabilities of Engineers over 55 or 60 than in using them to be productive and mentor the younger Engineers? No, rather go out and find those that are employed by others. Steal from Peter to pay Paul. It's easier than training our own, because our neighbour steals them from us anyway. It is a zero sum game and when the tipping point comes, it is too late. There is then little or no critical level energy being added for the other professions to pilfer. To this is add the incompetence of the politicians who are playing expediency games. Currently, with the combination of economic policy, labour policy, employment equity policy, education policy, skills development policy, SA is reaching the point of de-industrialisation and has slipped to a dismal low ranking in the world's mining stakes.

China's faith in its ability to mould markets may derive from the fact that its leaders are mostly Engineers, trained to build from a plan. Eight of nine top party officials come from engineering backgrounds, and the practicality of their profession may help explain why they didn't buy into risky (and Western) financial innovation. These ruling Engineers preside over a system that is highly process oriented and obsesses with performance metrics. In all this mess, what profession can best survive internationally? If someone can identify one other than engineering, then please do.

There are some fundamental theorems that provide insight into the mechanism of decision making when multiple choices are presented to voting parties. Of relevance is Arrow's Theorem or paradox that says that if the decision-making body has at least two members and at least three options to decide among, then it is impossible to design a social welfare function that satisfies all these conditions at once. Imagine how this influences bigger samples. That is clearly why in any voting system the society will never be able to rank preferences to meet the social welfare objective. It must explain why and how dictatorships in theory overcome this dilemma but beneficial dictatorships don't ever seem to exist. The theorem would also explain that even in a democratic system, the successful party has to effectively adopt dictatorship rules to rank the preferences. It also explains why very few, if any, countries have more than two effective political parties that have any impact in an election. And why elected government then practices effective dictatorship.

Back to the carbon issue. Gore hypothesises that if we keep producing large man-made quantities of carbon dioxide, we would eventually tip the balance of the world's ecosystems and all fry or drown in the resulting wake. This resulted in the decisions to cut coal and oil burning, which also happened to coincide with the views of the anti-nukes who believe the world can get by with renewables only. It all depends on what we mean by getting by. Massive industrial activity reduction and effectively a return to smaller populations and a lowering of living standards. Is it likely the voters will ever accept that? Not in their own back yard, that is for sure.

What is really driving carbon (dioxide) reduction? Suddenly governments have seen the opportunity for more taxation, and that seems to me to be the real driver. This must be the case because very few if any decision-makers in governments have really undertaken to study the real impact of carbon taxes on everything else in the structures which put them into power. Do we really believe taxes collected in the name of carbon will ever be used to develop carbon reduction programmes or greening programmes?

Interesting is the current debate on whether it is greener to run a Toyota Prius or a Hummer SUV. The arguments are as wide as the evident inability of the protagonists to apply well developed engineering, economic and cognitive logic in a collective sense. Each appears to have made up the mind and then searched for the evidence to prove the desired outcome. None of the studies I have read appear to have been done with an objective evaluation based on good engineering principles where the parameters are clearly defined and are considered to be equitable. What in fact is equitable anyway? In the end, it will be a mainly emotional consideration in that buying a Prius is a self-conscious life-style statement. Even if a Hummer was the more carbon efficient over its lifetime, it may be seen to be a bit socially unacceptable. But those who really fancy a Hummer will buy it anyway and then argue the case against global warming.

I guess we do not really know if our own carbon dioxide production will damage the ecology. We have scant evidence and the correlations are unconvincing. However, what if it is right and we choose now not to believe it? Can we take the risk? And the tax is too good for governments not to believe in it. Then there is equally uncertain evidence that the earth is actually cooling down.

I see the tragedy of a commons result emerging in the South African technical resources environment. Not quite as easy to understand as the access to free air and water that is now believed to be threatened by toxic overload produced by the common user. No, the analogy is evident by the common employer, believing that the supply of experienced and competent engineering resources is available to all and will continue to be available without considering that each time a useful resource is employed by the employer to grow his business, the common pool of that level of resources declines. The issue then is if one takes account of the skill sets that are required in that resource pool, it behoves the employer to have a structured methodology of enhancing that skill set to replace that which ages out of the system. We are making the fairly obvious assumption that the economy is meant to be growing.

There is a widespread belief that it is up to the tertiary institutions to look after the supply of feedstock and training of these resources. Once graduated, the resource then seeks out employers who may offer employment but the active training of same is carried out by relatively few organisations when one considers the size of the total employer pool. Those that signed up a Commitment and Undertaking with the Engineering Council are the main contributors. It is the best we have. Do you know that with all the efforts so far to increase the number of black Professional Engineers, we only have 825 as at February 2011 out of 14659 Pr Engs in total?

Currently registered to undertake the EIT phase is 5514 in total, with blacks making up 1505. An encouraging growth here, but the rate of all applicants for EIT is growing and will grow faster as Identification of Engineering Work is promulgated and registration is then a requirement and not a nice-to-have. We need to rapidly make all these employable.

The most disturbing and silly belief in industry is that Engineers in their 50s and 60s are "too old”. Guess who decides this? HR. All so entranced with their own importance and convincing management that this is the right decision because of insurance and medical aid and pension issues, they appear quite unaware that this could be easily resolved by employing the mature Engineer on contract, and also have him supervise the trainee. I know of and have seen the mature Engineer run rings around the youngsters in the factory and on site, identifying non-conformances and improvements that the younger Engineers would not even notice. With the critical need for the experienced designer, supervisor and mentor for the trainee Engineer, who I ask, is going to provide this as we grow the economy? Does HR realise as a duty to its management, it must understand that as time moves on, so does the intellectual capacity built on experience move on? My message to HR: overcome your normalcy bias and help prevent the tragedy in our own commons.

I do not accept their excuses any more, and am intending to lead our own Tunisian style revolution to get this age fixation on Engineers out of the system. Just for starters, an ECSA based EIT committee has been formed to design, implement and co-ordinate the efforts of the VAs, the training community and the funding sources to be made available from the skills development levies of our engineering employers that go the NSF and the SETAs. This programme will require the services of mentors and clearly they will be drawn from our mature group. Join the revol.

It represents an odd but understandable dichotomy: we have a serious unemployment problem with little realism prevailing as to how to solve it, mainly because it is the creation of historical stupidity in skills development only exceeded by the stupidity of the belief that we suddenly "create jobs by government decree”. But we have a serious shortage of the right skills and experience. The demographics show that the bulk of the best skills in the project development industry are in the age group 50 upwards right into the 70s. Whilst this phenomenon is replicated to a degree elsewhere in world, it is particularly skewed here in SA by the active "expulsion” of a lot of our talent through affirmative action. Studies show that many of the eligible emigration group, below 45 years of age, have readily left SA for options in foreign lands. A South African is the CEO of BHP Billiton in Australia and there are many SA's in the ranks of the engineering resources right throughout that company. The same applies to many other mining companies in other parts of the world.

The young feedstock to the industry is relatively inexperienced and the problem is that the mentoring capacity is so thin that this is almost non-existent. While local mining is growing, faster development is taking place outside SA, and economists that follow the trends are concerned that SAs' mining regulations, talk of nationalization, nepotism in the ranks etc is diverting investment elsewhere. BHP Billiton has $80 billion to invest in new ventures: none of it is going to SA new mining projects because it considers there are lower risk levels elsewhere.

Where does all this leave us? For my money, living in the engineering resources supply business daily, it needs some concerted and urgent action, not more conferences and debates. Firstly, the practical training and development of graduate engineering resources (Engineers, Technologists and Technicians of all disciplines) need to be able to engage in structured and well managed training schemes including time (6 months) in an engineering boot camp facility that will teach trainees the essential competencies and practicalities of (mechanical) engineering at the pit-face so to speak. Then 2 to 3 years in a structured and fund assisted professional development programme in industry. The PDP now being developed and honed by SAIMechE will be ideal, as it will focus on the 11 competencies required for registration with ECSA and align with the legalisation of identification of engineering work. Industry has to come to the party with proper supervision of the trainees.

As for funding, there may be light at the end of the tunnel. It appears (but do not hold your breath) that NSF funding for engineering training may shortly be available in realistically large quanta. The PDP committee will have met with other parties by the time this article is published and we can only hope that this expectation will be met.

Insofar as training and development of engineering resources is concerned, it is essential that this be provided and managed via the profession and the active involvement of the Voluntary Associations with funded programmes and mentorships. To the government, I say with confidence, we have the tools; provide the funds now seriously from the skills levy to let us do the job.

1. There are far too many agencies in the recruitment space. Many are not more than body shops, collecting CVs and submitting them out to all and sundry with little care as to job and profile alignment. Most claim to have expertise across many varied professions and trades. Few do as we do, focus only on the engineering profession and provide guidelines and assistance to employers and candidates as Professional Engineers can and should do. We supply the people part of the engineering business, just as other experts provide equipment.
2. HR does enormous harm to the process of procuring Engineers. Employers who normally take great care in specifying a product, seeking out reputable suppliers, visiting their works and assisting the technical buyers will somehow avoid involvement and leave HR to do the work of handling dubiously worded job specifications, at times we have counted, to up to 40 separate agencies for one post! Why not align with selected specialist consultants who know the product and the profession, particularly in pre-planning future needs?
3. A 24 year old recruiter in an agency will interview a 53 year old Professional Engineer and advise him he is too old for the job. It happens . If that is not the height of insult then what is? Our greatest engineering talent exists at this age and beyond, and it is being neglected at great risk of losing experiential skills.
4. A common feature is how many candidates simply cannot spell, edit a CV, read the job specifications and who will apply for a position shortly after graduating that specifies 10-15 years experience in an engineering management role. This "give it a go” attitude can often comprise the bulk of applications.
5. The time is past that employers, perhaps through the naivety of HR, can expect Mr or Ms Perfect to be standing on the street corner waiting for their call. The good ,experienced skills are in short supply and fully employed, are internationally mobile and proving it, and demand high remuneration to the surprise of the prospective employers who claim the candidate be to out of touch with the market. Well, I am not sure where HR gets their "market levels”, but invariably from historic tables issued a while ago with somewhat wide and unhelpful margins and weak descriptors. The difference is so evident that we are considering publishing a real-time remuneration survey for interested employers based on our own up to the minute information for the engineering profession, a sort of real-time remuneration survey.
6. Then we must take up some concerns with line management. How many are really equipped to make a valid judgment from a CV alone? Many are so busy that they have not viewed them or done so in such a hurry with no reverting questions and simply accept or reject them. I have witnessed a small pump getting more adjudication time than a senior engineering candidate!
7. Near-fit of candidate to the specified role does not succeed. The belief that Mr or Ms Perfect must be found is the only way. We have no time to train up the near-fits. I am appalled at the lack of training, mentoring and acceptance of this within the crisis we face in scarce skills today. Industry needs a major wake-up if it is to collectively be in a position to manage a serious growth development in the economy.
8. If our own SA Engineers knew the remuneration that foreign expats are earning on our Eskom projects, they would have a fit. And many of our own are equally able to provide the skills and expertise.
9. As Engineer Placements, we are working closely with Voluntary Associations and ECSA to develop structured training and mentoring for the EIT programme required after graduation. The intent is to seek out retired Engineers to act as paid mentors with programmes endorsed via the SAIMechE Professional Development Programme with funding from the revised NSDS3 and industry. At least Minister Ebrahim Patel, in his call to train 30,000 more Engineers, should be grateful and hopefully actively supportive. Pigs may fly though.

"Government is targeting the training of at least 30,000 additional engineers by 2014” was announced by Economic Development Minister Patel last month. One has to "interpret” the meaning of this as it conveys many possible options. It also pre-supposes that required national projects will be activated (R800 billion in infrastructure in 3 years?) as the current project load is dismal.

1. The Minister wants 30,000 more graduates on the market in 3 years time.

Since engineering is at least a 4 year course, then somehow he is "arranging” to have 30,000 more 2^nd year students enter the tertiary system in 2011, or find 30,000 additional pass-capable students in the current streams. Since graduates are not useful Engineers until they have completed the 3 year EIT period, does he mean Engineers or graduates? Pass to next option.

2. The Minister wants 30,000 new entrants to the first year of the engineering course.

He should drop in on Blade Nzimande and place an order for 30,000 extra maths and science higher level school leavers without delay. Then check the capacity of the secondary school teachers and tertiary institutions to accommodate this. If impossible, pass to next option.

3. The Minister wants 30,000 employable Engineers to enter the labour market.

The Minister together with the cabinet and ANC policy makers must scrap affirmative action, employers wake up to the fact that 60 plus year olds are as good as Engineers as you can get (which would also mean scrapping the useless HR departments staffed with 20 plus year old non-technical somethings) and putting the retrenched and early retired Engineers back into the system to both run jobs and mentor the new graduates in structured EIT programmes to achieve the training. Possible, but improbable. Pass to next option.

4. The Minister recognises that most of the 30,000 should be employed by government, parastatal and provincial sectors to enable these bodies to be able to deliver projects to the citizens of SA. Capacity at state "owner's team” level is so low that it is virtually dysfunctional. Ask SAICE, CESA and SAFCEC.

But this means cadres have to be removed, and if any of these are good at anything at all, they should be employed as road repair gangs, and using the chain-gang system would be appropriate as they are guilty of wasting taxpayers' money, doing nothing for service delivery, and failing to execute the required operations and maintenance of the country's assets while occupying cushy salaried positions that only qualified engineering resources should have had. However, this is clearly not seen as necessary by ANC politicians (until service delivery protests, riots and citizen management reach nationwide crisis levels). Pass onto next option.

5. The Minister is not certain where the training should happen but believes there is a need.

That at least would be a realistic option. One would think that he has observed that the supply of Engineers takes place along a long-term and well established supply chain. It starts at the age of about 6 when the prospective Engineer has the inclination, interest and role models to guide him or her into it as a career move. It is probably in the genes of those that adopt the profession successfully. Making up numbers with feedstock that has no inherent, natural inclination and desire to be an Engineer just wastes the supply chains' resources.

6. The Minister's intentions are well meant and he intends to consult with the engineering profession in order to address the real issues.

The Minister may wish to identify the real shortages and remove the pointless political policies (BBBEE for one in its present form) where points for skills development count less than having a figurehead black director on the company letterhead. The NSF's unspent money can be directed via programmes managed by the Voluntary Engineering Associations to up-skill new engineering graduates, technologists and technicians. The need is agreed, but the action is lacking. At least the Minister has realised one thing: skills are in a major crisis, largely created by his own party's idealism and inability to educate or train for the required, competent national capacity. Industry must also wake up and get training instead of expecting the perfect resources to be eternally waiting for their call. Can the profession please be consulted on how to get this training done as it needs to be developed right through the supply chain?

In SA right now a most serious problem is a steady decline in the skills across the board and it is not fixed by suddenly declaring OBE to have been a dismal failure. That is certainly a major factor but added to this root cause of the deterioration of maths and science standards at primary and secondary level is the continued loss of useful skills across the full spectrum. In this mix are the skills to set policy and implement strategy (ministers included). A further recent discovery is the parlous state of SA's intellectual property laws. We used to be at the forefront of the modern requirements for addressing and modifying these laws with rapidly changing technology. An observation recently compared the deterioration here with that of our secondary roads. Neglect of maintenance until potholes develop and the journey then becomes unpleasant and in fact dangerous. The reason? Not difficult to find. All the skills and expertise that existed and should be utilized to keep ahead of the game were replaced with politically correct appointments. Replicate this across so many activities and it explains the slide to mediocrity and lack of effective action in so many areas.

Recently someone asked me, why do we want to train up lots of engineering resources into the economy? After all, if supply and demand are to drive the dynamic, then if we as engineering resources want to earn more - our "better life for us” so to speak - then let's keep the numbers down. Why create our own oversupply? My own answer to that is when the industry's growth and the infrastructure's support needs are threatened then I guess we all fall down together. There is a balance and if we do not develop our own resources we will finish up having to import them at astronomical cost. Study the demands of foreign skills in Rand terms especially those that have optimized the benefits of being internationally mobile. You may want to find out what the expats working on many of Eskom's projects are costing SA. Watch and learn, they say. And out there as I mentioned in my last note, we have many early retired SA Engineers, Technologists and Technicians who would be quite capable of using their past experience on power projects and who are being overlooked. The mind boggles.

In our dilemma of creating jobs in the economy without the right human capital, financial capital, while necessary, is not sufficient. Our political manipulation of the skills base leaves us with structural reasons for the increasing consumption over production. Consumption grew at double the rate of production between 1994 and 2008. It now takes 36% fewer workers to produce the same level of output we had in 1960. More automation following world trends, ably assisted here by SA's inflexible labour laws, BEE, poor training and little mentorship. Unskilled unemployment must inevitably go on rising and I believe it will be greater in 2014 than half the present numbers as forecast by government.

It's an intellectual world, the world of the Engineer. There is certainly room for many more of us and we may be the essential catalyst to help reduce this horrific unemployment.

If we look ahead and assemble some sort of connect between the demand status and the supply, this must include that which we experience at present i.e. the day to day obvious difficulties in locating suitable skills as well as the estimated demand that would arise from future growth policy.

It should not be beyond us to intuitively identify the type of skills we will need to support an industrial or social development policy, or one that in our case should be implemented to reduce the current high levels of unemployment and its looming deterioration.

Government has via its usual unsupported spin decreed that unemployment will be halved by 2014. The problem with that statement is that is has no rational change model to convince me that it will happen. In fact unless there are some radical interventions in education and skills development, I predict that unemployment will in fact get worse, not better.

A major, if not the major, constraint on enabling some fast-track scale up of all technical skills is the lack of the redeployment of the large numbers of retired, retrenched, emigrated and disillusioned engineering resources. Via structured NSF and private sector remunerated programmes we would not only add to the line roles in deficient organizations battling with the location of the perfect candidate, but provide mentorship to the younger resources taken on in a trainee capacity. Here we talk of the proven need for experiential skills transfer.

I experience on a regular basis the rejection by clients of the recommendation to consider an Engineer, Technologist or Technician on the basis that they are "too old” at, for example, the age of 61! Not only is this ridiculous from the perspective of experience and the relevant qualifications, but it begs the question as to who makes this call? Well, Mr Perfect is not, even in the existing less active times, standing on the street corner awaiting your call. He has got a good job, and even if not busy, the smart employer is holding on to them because when the music really starts again, they will not be available. Most good resources only move to better positions. With acute shortages, this can become a sort of revolving door process that rapidly escalates pay levels

If one needs some evidence that the retired generation are well equipped to enhance skills development and in effect help to reduce unemployment, then do no more than study the success that the SAICE Projects team have achieved in providing retired Engineers including Septuagenarians and in some cases Octogenarians to the functions in local government and municipalities to mentor the Civil Technicians and provide line roles.

If we fail to implement this process across all engineering disciplines, then consider this. Time does not stand still. The demographics show a serious dip in well experienced and qualified engineering resources in the 30 to 50 age group. Then consider the numbers of candidate engineering resources emerging at the age 20 to 25. Who is going to mentor those academically qualified candidates who lack experience in the trenches? In the qualified artisan ranks, the average age is about 53. Studies estimate that some 20 % of artisans are less than 40 years old. The same profile exists across most disciplines.

So to those who live with the blinkered view that 60 plus year old Engineers are "too old”, consider that in most developed countries now the retirement age is being raised, not only to extend the use of skills, but also on the grounds that prescribed benefit pension systems have disappeared and working life has had to been extended. The paradigm has shifted.

While the battle between the reductions in fossil based power and nuclear continues with the usual largely misinformed input by the anti-nuclear protagonists, renewable energy is receiving a lot of attention in the forms of wind, solar, photovoltaic, biogas, wave and hydrogen. In SA, overlaying the issue is the impact of the large increases in the cost of traditional fossil based power created by the lack of vision and unbelievable naïveté displayed by the government in the years following the era in which we had surplus capacity in our fossil stations. Completely beyond comprehension was the belief by government that the independent power producers would suddenly emerge and be prepared to provide power at below cost, and certainly at tariffs that at the time meant a negative return on investment.

When the reality of the situation finally hit home through the load shedding debacle, we were then faced with the challenge of returning to the large "six pack” stations that were the norm for Eskom and which now had to be resurrected hurriedly, the costs of which now meant massive annual tariff hikes that will be substantial for the next five years.

The option of additional nuclear plants such as Koeberg seemed to feature in a sort of Nero-fiddling playback, and then we decided we had to dump the PBMR after spending enormous development costs and creating what must be substantial intellectual property that will, in the true form of these things, never re-emerge other than with competitors who will attract our brainpower.

The next amazing feature of this now manic-level response to the power challenge appears to be another illusion of adequacy in assuming we know how to plan ahead with renewables. One such illusion is the "plan” to have 10,000 GWh per annum of renewable capacity installed and available by 2013. This statement is reported in Engineering News on 23 August 2010. "Energy Minister Dipuo Peters was confident that South Africa would reach the target of producing 10 000 GWh of renewable energy by 2013, as set out in the renewable energy white paper of 2003. The target was said to represent about 4% of South Africa's total generation capacity”.

Given the 28 months left until the start of 2013 by which time the capacity must be installed, commissioned and connected to the grid which would have to be upgraded to accept intermittent input from diverse locations, then being very optimistic and providing 16 months to set strategy, identify parties, get licenses, do the EIAs, design, procure and deliver to a prepared site, then we would have 12 months to erect 1425 x 2MW turbines based on a load factor of 20% to compensate for the varied wind blanket. This factor is the maximum the Americans and Europeans have found possible from wind power. On this basis then we would need to install and commission 1,6 x 2MW turbines every day of the year including weekends and public holidays.

Whilst I believe in ambitious targets, this just makes one wonder who is advising the Minister and just how easily it is to influence non-technical people with illusory numbers. It took the Danes, the most advanced wind power nation in the world, over 30 years to install less than 7000 GWh in their well wind provided environment and with a grid that had been developed to accept the vagaries of renewable supply.

One does wonder who is planning South Africa's future infrastructure and how many engineering knowledge sources are being consulted or charged with developing such plans. Not once have the powers-that-be approached the SAIMechE to provide input to any engineering based plans.

The uninformed, as Lang said, seem to adopt statistics like a drunk man uses a lamp post, mainly for support rather than illumination.

I am personally tired of observing and commenting on so much of our past failures in this leader column. How many of them are actually easily enabled to be turned around and developed for the benefit of SA citizens? If we can project manage the WC with all its first-time challenges, why can't we get the relatively straight forward function of municipal service delivery right? The root cause is clear. Get rid of lousy, incompetent, unqualified, corrupt management; fire the officials who seem incapable of delivering, and are misusing funds. No more paid suspension and jobs for pals. But let's do it. Time to get private power producers going. Time to get the Acts amended that mess our potential to exploit our minerals. Time to get effective engineering training going. Get measures agreed to radically reduce the massive unemployment level. We will go bankrupt at the rate we pay more receivers of social benefits than have jobs. Reducing unemployment is our biggest challenge. Here is a thought, though. It comes from a recent SAIEE Presidential address.

"If one is looking for modern examples of the good old fashioned engineering approach to economic development, one needs to look to the East. When President Hu of China appointed his first cabinet in 2002, every one of them was an Engineer. Perhaps this in part explains China's ongoing extraordinary economic growth and industrialization”.

So, Members, how shall we go for the world cup in transforming a system that has been taking us for a ride for too long? A very positive development has just been announced and which exemplifies the ability of a lot of adversarial parties to get together and formulate a new deal all with a common goal. This is the recent mining commitment plan which followed the Citibank International report that SA sits on the most valuable mineral wealth in the world by far, streaks ahead of Russia and Australia in second and third places. We have R18 Trillion in an un-mined prize waiting for initiative, co-operation, funding, innovation, supporting infrastructure, skills development, employment and all the other benefits of a good, long term plan. Even Malema should be excited. It noticeably seems however to have eluded the government's own planning commission, but we all know how evident that has been.

Power and energy. Big plans now in hand for private power generation, and additionally an exciting development in advanced waste coal carbon combustion technology with almost no carbon footprint. Unless co-generation gets going, then any major mining and industrial initiatives will not have the power due to Eskom's limitations.

Can we catalyse the World Cup energy into ongoing action? It is up to everyone to make it happen. Tourism just has to escalate, which means major options for the service industry. I heard countless comments from foreign visitors at Cape Town's V& A waterfront at the semi-final on a beautiful evening that it must be the best all-round place for a World Cup.

The new SAIMechE website has the functions to enable interaction and debate. Can this connectivity and our a new feeling of optimism improve our collective advance into getting Engineers into the main arena? Sceptics, step aside. Let the game begin.

A well presented explanation of the build-up and collapse of the world credit markets is provided in a book called the Perfect Recession which shows the analogy with the causes of the Perfect Storm that destroyed so much of the east coast of the USA in 1991. It identifies the coincidental phasing of some 12 independent effects, that happening on their own, would normally pass by unnoticed.

How should SA emerge from the recession? Investec convincingly pointed out that unemployment was our biggest threat, a feature that we have to solve ourselves. No bailout is available for that. How well is SA creating an environment that encourages the entrepreneur and the small businesses that are the backbone of growth in any economy? If SA were in effect a business corporation, would you invest in it when presented with some of the following attributes in a strategic plan? The Planning Commission believes it is acceptable to have a two and a half year sabbatical before it needs to put any plan forward (one year to form, 18 months before delivery). An integrated energy policy , crucial to confidence and forward planning, does not exist. So what do we have to consider?

Labour market and labour laws: most employers try to automate where they can to eliminate labour that has first world rights in a third world environment. No hire and fire here that built most successful economies. Competitiveness: low down on the world scale and dropping. Education of citizens: like the curate's egg, good in many parts, horrible in many others. Our private schools are as good as you can get, and need to be nurtured to keep that standard. Many government schools in general need a big kick just to get the teachers to class in time. Even the Minister is shocked, and that says something. Energy and power: per the new Eskom edict, the 25% increase will now happen 5 years in a row. Plug that into your cost planning. Effective skills development: blank screen. Some skills are marginally available while the world recovers and many projects end in SA. I place Engineers as a business and interact every day with employers and candidates; if you are not relating to your future skills need, you may be in trouble because the really good ones are still scarce. Too many employers of engineering resources believe Mr. Perfect is waiting on the street corner for the call. The huge intellectual capital tied up in retired-age Engineers remains unutilised due to a belief that these skills reside in the 30 to 50 age category. We need more effective Candidate Engineer training and paid mentoring, as well as a lot more CPD than the minimum required for registration credits to help keep the institutional memory in the system.

There is big hope for tourism if we do not mug or steal from too many visitors. The World Cup should be a great event and I believe SA has done well against the forebodings of many critics. It could do wonders for putting us on the map, perhaps bringing skills (back) into the country, but we have to energise ourselves beyond the revenues of tourists. Will the intangible benefits of exposure and national identity outweigh the massive cost to SA of the event?

We need a game plan as a country. Where is it, Mr President and Mr Manuel? Let us not find that while we survived the recession, we lost the way to compete in the recovery.

A disturbing recent commentary from the civil engineering profession contains a number of serious issues that illustrate the growing loss of skills and institutional energy from the infrastructure. Consider some of these:

SAFCEC (The SA Federation of Civil Engineering Contractors) says a large number of contract awards are being postponed by all tiers of government, while technical expertise is also lacking at government level to make the necessary decisions on project scopes and the awarding of tenders.

It is not that government does not have the money – it is that they are not spending it.

Overall, the tender adjudication postponement rate for the government sector on the whole, across all tiers, increased from 10% in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 23,2% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Where it should take around three months to award a tender, it can now take up to a frustrating six months, which means skills and capacity in the industry lie dormant.

This is not about government not having the money – it is about not having the capacity to make decisions.

A recent report on municipalities says the combination of poor payment and higher levels of postponement suggest either a funding or management issue, both implying capacity constraints. Evidence of this is the latest municipal financial report, ending December 2009, which shows a debtor analysis in excess of 70% at 90 days or more, across all municipal departments.

One infrastructure agency had access to R27-billion in credit, but used only R300-million.

Institutional decay is fast becoming a massive drag on delivery.

SAFCEC adds that there is too much political involvement in decisions that should be driven by business principles, especially at local municipalities and parastatals. Corruption in the awarding of tenders is also a cause of concern. In fact it is rampant.

We know that the civil engineering profession tends to be a leading indicator of the project spend pattern. How will this impact on the mechanical and electrical professions? When local skills capacity lies dormant it will seek work outside the country, and coupled with the general skills shortage across most sectors, even in the unlikely event that the politicians do understand the second law of thermodynamics, then they will find that the source of providing the required energy has left home. The Local Government SETA's own scare skills list shows "absolute scarcity” ranking in all disciplines of engineering. Yet when one develops a programme to assist in the relief of this skills need, bureaucracy, politics, finger trouble and plain stupidity reign supreme.

I would to know if the Planning Commission which has taken so long to get its own planning act together, if at all is actually aware of the impact of a declining infrastructure and what they plan to recommend. The evidence now becoming common knowledge is the number of municipalities where the residents are forming their own bodies to run the local authorities' affairs, and it now indicates the response to the growing service delivery protests as political spin achieves no solution. As institutional memory and capacity decline, the citizens will take over to maintain any sense of stability and control. This is a vital trend raised in the Dinokeng scenarios. The ANC may just realise in due course that this is not good for voter support, and entropy cannot be reversed by denial and inactivity.

In the end, engineering skills will be the essential midwife to help with the birth of a new dispensation for the reversal of the energy loss. It is really that which creates the built environment.