The generation and distribution of electricity must without question be an absolute and necessary condition to enable a country to build a modern economy. A quick review of the history over the last two decades reveals that Eskom did not build any capacity into the system until the load-shedding crisis of 2007-2008 made it blatantly apparent that we were in big trouble. The projections by energy experts and Eskom themselves since 1997 were not heeded by government. It thought it would rely on the emergence of independent power producers and not did listen to the warnings that such players only took part if the investments made sense. Eskom had built many modern 6 pack stations that were considered world class and lead the way with large units, the use of pithead locations and the use of high-ash content coal. Eskom had developed a well versed owner’s team with a top level intellectual memory and capacity that knew about power generation, transmission and distribution. Their model was to design and install stations that did not try to experiment with untested technology and politically dictated management structures. It knew the need for experienced skills.

Fast forward to today. Our now infamous political interference habits are coming home to bite us. Eskom, on top of a few bouts of knockout increases in tariffs, then requires a 16% price adjustment per annum for at least the next five years. The surpluses that had been generated were taken by the new government for other uses instead of providing for a sinking fund. Lovely cash cow. Who worries about the future capitalization? This is then compounded by "removing” the retained intellectual memory and replacing it with an inexperienced owner’s team. This team manages to mess with maintenance as well, so that the reliability of the installed capacity is compromised.

Then the message hits home: we must build two new stations: Medupi and Kusile. We are not that good at estimating, especially as we decide to go for bespoke specifications instead of, under the pressure of the circumstances, relying on the experience of established project structures and know-how. The projected costs of Medupi rise from (well who really knows?) anything from R87 billion to now R105 billion and counting, and the date of first synchronization has moved from 2011 to 2014. The messages from the site are scary: you do not know it all. Be aware, things are bad.

So we connect the dots and what does it reveal? It takes no rocket scientist to figure out root cause. I have never indulged in that horror practice of being politically correct, and whilst I will say this, it is now the almost universal opinion in a noticeable crescendo.

Transformation without education.

If that is not readily apparent, then one should not be surprised at the dangers of a gathering storm.